Clausura - 22 · 29 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense Division Profesional - Clausura prediction

Estadio Rogelio Livieres

Our model says: Club Guarani 1–0 Sportivo Trinidense

The model makes it 39% Club Guarani, 30% draw, 31% Sportivo Trinidense — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Club Guarani 1.28, Sportivo Trinidense 1.06.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,327 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Club Guarani's rating is built from 41 Paraguayan Primera División Clausura matches and Sportivo Trinidense's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Club Guarani are 5th on 31 points from 19 games; Sportivo Trinidense are 2nd on 34 points from 19 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
  • Club Guarani have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Olimpia.
  • Sportivo Trinidense have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
  • Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 18 September 2026, ended Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 Club Guarani.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Club Guarani win Draw Sportivo Trinidense win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–012%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Club Guarani first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Club Guarani at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense

Club Guarani

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • L1-3Olimpia7 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Sportivo Ameliano4 November 2026
  • W1-02 de Mayo30 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Rubio NU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Nacional Asuncion17 October 2026

Sportivo Trinidense

Division Profesional - Clausura

  • W3-0Sportivo Ameliano8 November 2026
  • D0-0away to 2 de Mayo3 November 2026
  • L2-4Rubio NU30 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Nacional Asuncion24 October 2026
  • W1-0Libertad Asuncion18 October 2026

What these results say

  • Club Guarani scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
  • Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sportivo Trinidense kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Division Profesional - Clausura table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Club Guarani198742117+431
2Sportivo Trinidense1910453118+1334

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Sportivo Trinidense

  • 18 September 2026Sportivo Trinidense 0–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 29 March 2026Club Guarani 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 29 January 2026Sportivo Trinidense 0–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
  • 26 September 2025Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 20 July 2025Club Guarani 0–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
  • 1 June 2025Sportivo Trinidense 2–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura

Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Sportivo Trinidense

Club Guarani

No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 21 league goals as a side.

Sportivo Trinidense

GoalsAssists

  • F. Romero71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sportivo Trinidense (second, with Club Guarani fifth), while our numbers lean to Club Guarani. Club Guarani rate 0.61 in attack and 1.21 in defence, Sportivo Trinidense 0.73 and 1.29 (lower is better in defence), so Club Guarani have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 0% chance of the title and Sportivo Trinidense 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Club Guarani Sportivo Trinidense
0.61 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.73
1.21 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.29
1.28 Model expected goals (this match) 1.06

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Club Guarani against 1.06 for Sportivo Trinidense. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.29 for Sportivo Trinidense.

Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.57 for Sportivo Trinidense. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 39% for Club Guarani to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Club Guarani to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Club Guarani's ratings take away 2 points and Sportivo Trinidense's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 39%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level42%−2
  4. Club Guarani's ratings40%−2
  5. Sportivo Trinidense's ratings39%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Club GuaraniSportivo Trinidense
19Matches19
8W 7D 4LRecord10W 4D 5L
21 1.1 per gameGoals scored31 1.6 per game
17 0.9 per gameGoals conceded18 0.9 per game
9 of 19Clean sheets7 of 19
3 of 19Failed to score4 of 19
1 of 2Penalties scored3 of 5
31 1.6 per gameYellow cards39 2.1 per game
0Red cards4
4-1-4-1 10×Usual shape4-1-4-1 11×

Club Guarani at home · Sportivo Trinidense away

10Played9
3W 3D 4LRecord5W 3D 1L
12–14Goals for – against15–6
2 of 10Clean sheets4 of 9

League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 19, Sportivo Trinidense 19.

Club Guarani scored 222435
Sportivo Trinidense conceded 442225

Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 5 there.

Sportivo Trinidense scored 2343512
Club Guarani conceded 044534

Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Club Guarani have let in 4 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.