19 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Eva Peron, Junin
Referee: D. Zamora
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Sarmiento Junin 1-1 Barracas Central.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Sarmiento Junin, 31% draw, 29% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.50, 3.23 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Sarmiento Junin at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Sarmiento Junin3%Draw94%Barracas Central3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jhon Renteríaassist: Cristian Exequiel Zabala
14'
43'
Nicolás Demartini
🔁Jhon Renteríaout: Gaston Gonzalez
45'
59'
🔁Rodrigo Bogarinout: Gonzalo Maroni
🔁Julian Mavillaout: Manuel García
70'
🔁Julián Contreraout: Ulises Adrian Gimenez
70'
71'
🔁Elías Pereyraout: Rodrigo Insua
71'
🔁Ivan Tapiaout: Tomás Porra
Junior Marabel
71'
75'
•Yonatthan Rak
78'
⚽Rodrigo Insua (pen)
Lucas·Suarez
81'
🔁Mauricio Martínezout: Jonathan Herrera
83'
•Junior Marabel
87'
90+4'
🔁Nicolas Orsiniout: Facundo Bruera
90+4'
🔁Norberto Briascoout: Carlos Alfredo Arce
•Lucas·Suarez
90+8'

Match stats — Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central

28%Possession72%
7Shots21
2On target6
1Corners4
0.81xG2.76

Goals against chances

Sarmiento Junin1 from 0.81 xGabout what the chances were worth
Barracas Central1 from 2.76 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Sarmiento Junin 3-5-2
  • 12T. AyalaG
  • 44R. OrihuelaD
  • 2J. InsaurraldeD
  • 3L. SuárezD
  • 8S. SalleM
  • 16Mauricio Leonel MartínezM
  • 15C. ZabalaM
  • 21J. MavillaM
  • 19J. ContreraM
  • 27J. MarabelF
  • 10Jhon RenteríaF
Substitutes
  • 6G. ArturiaD
  • 9D. ChurínF
  • 5M. GarcíaM
  • 20U. GiménezD
  • 23E. GiménezM
  • 11G. GonzálezF
  • 24J. HerreraF
  • 7P. MagnínF
  • 17A. NadruzM
Coach: Facundo Sava
Barracas Central 4-4-2
  • 30M. MiñoG
  • 13R. BarriosD
  • 15Y. RakD
  • 31N. DemartiniD
  • 17E. PereyraD
  • 28R. BogarínM
  • 35E. RolónM
  • 10I. TapiaM
  • 24Enzo TabordaM
  • 34N. OrsiniF
  • 11N. BriascoF
Substitutes
  • 77F. BrueraF
  • 19Carlos ArceM
  • 37G. CampiD
  • 2N. CapraroD
  • 1J. EspínolaG
  • 16Ivan GuarazM
  • 6R. InsúaD
  • 36Tomas LavezziF
  • 33G. MaroniM
Coach: D. Ayude

Form going into Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central

Sarmiento Junin

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D1-1River Plate14 October 2026

Barracas Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0Huracan10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Sarmiento Junin166372324-121
5Barracas Central167541713+426

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central

  • 2 April 2026Barracas Central 1–2 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 20 September 2025Barracas Central 0–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 9 March 2025Sarmiento Junin 1–1 Barracas CentralLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 19 May 2024Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 25 February 2024Sarmiento Junin 0–0 Barracas CentralCopa de la Liga Profesional
  • 2 October 2023Barracas Central 1–1 Sarmiento JuninCopa de la Liga Profesional

The full Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central record →

Leading scorers: Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central

Sarmiento Junin

GoalsAssists

  • J. Marabel145

Barracas Central

No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Sarmiento Junin and Barracas Central drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Sarmiento Junin at 40% and given a draw 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Jhon Rentería 14' for Sarmiento Junin, Rodrigo Insua (penalty) 78' for Barracas Central. On expected goals it finished 0.81–2.76.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sarmiento Junin a 89.9% chance to finish in the top eight: 99.1% after a win, 90.0% after a draw, 77.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 90.0%.

For Barracas Central the question was the chance to finish in the top eight, 83.1% going in: 97.3% after a win, 85.9% after a draw, 72.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 85.9%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.