19 October 2026, 20:30 UTC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC Liga Pro prediction & result

Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Referee: Yerson Zambrano
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Mushuc Runa SC 1-1 Orense SC.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Mushuc Runa SC, 25% draw, 26% Orense SC — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Mushuc Runa SC at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Mushuc Runa SC5%Draw91%Orense SC4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽W. Herreraassist: Beder Caicedo
⚽Freddy Mina (pen)
22'
38'
Juan Pablo Buch Pabón
🔁Tomson Mindaout: Jefferson Caicedo
42'
56'
🔁Pedro Velascoout: B. Quiñonez
🔁Renso Tufinoout: Bryan Corozo
58'
🔁Arnaldo Zambranoout: Nazareno Bazán
58'
Ronny Biojó
61'
Rodrigo Formento
61'
69'
🔁Bryan Elián Viñán Rodríguezout: Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga
🔁Freddy Minaout: Elian Caicedo
75'
🔁Miguel Pereaout: Kevin Peralta
76'
76'
🔁W. Herreraout: Luis Miguel Garcés Carrion
76'
🔁Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyesout: J. Valencia
76'
🔁Gonzalo Rostagnoout: Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle

Match stats — Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC

72%Possession28%
13Shots15
3On target8
6Corners3
1.51xG1.11

Goals against chances

Mushuc Runa SC1 from 1.51 xGless than the chances were worth
Orense SC1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2
  • 25R. FormentoG
  • 99Cristopher Adonis Angulo CaicedoD
  • 30F. CarabalíD
  • 4Ronny Alfonso Biojo PreciadoD
  • 33M. HernándezD
  • 7T. MindaM
  • 5Esteban Nicolás Dávila AlarcónM
  • 8A. ZambranoM
  • 28M. PereaM
  • 9R. TufinoF
  • 10F. MinaF
Substitutes
  • 11N. BazánF
  • 61J. CaicedoF
  • 14E. CaicedoF
  • 19B. CorozoM
  • 50J. CusmeD
  • 2J. FlorD
  • 18J. GonzalezM
  • 52D. MerinoM
  • 42W. PabónG
Coach: P. Vélez
Orense SC 3-4-3
  • 12R. SilvaG
  • 4M. QuiñonezD
  • 24G. AchilierD
  • 3Sixto Romario Mina ArroyoD
  • 31P. VelascoM
  • 21G. RostagnoM
  • 25R. JaramilloM
  • 15B. CaicedoM
  • 19Michael Alessandro Bermúdez ReyesF
  • 11A. HerreraF
  • 77B. ViñánF
Substitutes
  • 6S. CallegariD
  • 23Wilson Arturo Chuchuca ArreagaM
  • 53L. GarcesF
  • 74C. BarrioM
  • 59J. VeraM
  • 26N. MolinaM
  • 22J. OrtizG
  • 51C. OrtízM
  • 14E. PluasM
Coach: J. Buch

Form going into Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC

Mushuc Runa SC

Liga Pro

  • L2-3away to Delfin SC9 October 2026

Orense SC

Liga Pro

  • D0-0Deportivo Cuenca11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Pro table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Mushuc Runa SC361013134350-743
13Orense SC36109174353-1039

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Mushuc Runa SC vs Orense SC

  • 20 July 2026Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 19 March 2026Orense SC 3–2 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 14 September 2025Orense SC 3–1 Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro
  • 17 May 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–5 Orense SCLiga Pro
  • 6 March 2025Mushuc Runa SC 2–1 Orense SCCONMEBOL Sudamericana
  • 22 September 2024Mushuc Runa SC 3–0 Orense SCLiga Pro

Leading scorers: Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC

Mushuc Runa SC

No player in Liga Pro's leading scorers — 43 league goals as a side.

Orense SC

GoalsAssists

  • A. Herrera123

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Mushuc Runa SC and Orense SC drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Mushuc Runa SC at 49% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: W. Herrera 5' for Orense SC, Freddy Mina (penalty) 22' for Mushuc Runa SC. On expected goals it finished 1.51–1.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Mushuc Runa SC a 57.5% chance to win the league: 68.3% after a win, 51.0% after a draw, 41.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 51.0%, 6.5 points lower than before the match.

For Orense SC the question was the chance to win the league, 7.1% going in: 14.1% after a win, 5.9% after a draw, 2.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.9%, 1.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Liga Pro season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Mushuc Runa SC v Orense SC has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 45% / 27% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Mushuc Runa SC's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Mushuc Runa SC win49%▲ +4
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Orense SC win26%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.