Birmingham sit 10th in the Championship on 10 points from 7 matches, having scored 10 and conceded 9. The model rates their attack at 0.79× the league average and their defence at 1.42× goals conceded, where 1 is average and a lower defensive figure is better — below average at both ends by these numbers. Across their last 5 league matches they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, most recently beating Derby 2-1 away. That is 1.43 points a match, scoring 1.43 and conceding 1.29 per game across 2 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat. That leaves them 4 points behind West Ham at the top, in a table of 24. Among the 24 rated sides in the division that is the 5th-best attack and the 21st-best defence. They scored in 5 of those 5 and kept 0 clean sheets. Next they host Middlesbrough in the Championship on 19 September 2026, a match the model gives them 41%.
Model rating
How the model rates this team from its recent expected-goals output, relative to the league average — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 14 |
| 2 | Swansea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 14 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 14 |
| 4 | West Brom | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 12 |
| 6 | Charlton | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Wolves | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 11 |
| 8 | Lincoln | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Southampton | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 11 | Millwall | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 12 | Stoke City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Norwich | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 17 | Watford | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 19 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 |
| 20 | Bolton | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 7 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 |
| 22 | Derby | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
| 23 | Preston | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| 24 | Burnley | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 3 |
Birmingham sit 10 of 24, as the table stands today. Every competition we cover.
Recent league form
- W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026
- D2-2Wolves6 September 2026
- D1-1Southampton1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham28 August 2026
Last 5 league matches, most recent first.
Next match: Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Birmingham host Middlesbrough at St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham on 19 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. The model makes it 41% Birmingham, 28% draw and 31% Middlesbrough, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1. It projects 1.68 expected goals for Birmingham against 1.33. Beyond the result it puts both teams to score at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Full preview and model analysis for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough
Recent meetings with Middlesbrough
- 2 March 2026Birmingham 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 8 November 2025Middlesbrough 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
- 12 March 2024Birmingham 0–1 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 21 October 2023Middlesbrough 1–0 BirminghamChampionship
- 2 January 2023Birmingham 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
The last 5 meetings between the two, most recent first.