17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Derby vs Stoke City Championship prediction & result

Pride Park, Derby
Referee: Oliver Langford, England
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Derby 0-1 Stoke City.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Derby, 28% draw, 33% Stoke City — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Derby at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Derby0%Draw4%Stoke City96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

38'
🔁Eric Junior Bocatout: Luca Bombino
45'
🔁Jack Mcglynnout: George Hirst
49'
⚽Luke Grahamassist: Ethan Galbraith
🔁Lewis Travisout: Rhian Brewster
52'
68'
🔁Bosun Lawalout: Maksym Taloverov
68'
🔁Lamine Cisséout: Róbert Boženík
🔁Mohammed Fuseiniout: Henrik Wendel Meister
73'
D. Ozoh
76'
🔁Bobby Clarkout: Corey Blackett-Taylor
87'
🔁Ryan Hedgesout: Filip Bilbija
87'
🔁Sammie Szmodicsout: Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
87'
88'
🔁Justin Devennyout: Junior Tchamadeu

Match stats — Derby vs Stoke City

53%Possession47%
17Shots12
3On target4
7Corners4
1.07xG0.62

Goals against chances

Derby0 from 1.07 xGless than the chances were worth
Stoke City1 from 0.62 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Derby 4-2-3-1
  • 31J. VickersG
  • 23J. WardD
  • 24R. NyambeD
  • 28D. SandersonD
  • 26R. HedgesD
  • 4D. OzohM
  • 27L. TravisM
  • 16M. FuseiniM
  • 8B. ClarkM
  • 11S. SzmodicsM
  • 9C. MorrisF
Substitutes
  • 13F. BilbijaM
  • 33C. Blackett-TaylorF
  • 10R. BrewsterF
  • 29O. FrauloM
  • 19H. MeisterF
  • 12R. O'DonnellG
  • 15L. SalvesenF
  • 42Raymond OfforD
  • 43I. GordonD
Coach: J. Eustace
Stoke City 3-4-3
  • 1V. JohanssonG
  • 18B. LawalD
  • 16B. WilmotD
  • 5L. GrahamD
  • 2B. JohnsonM
  • 27El Hadji Djibril SoumaréM
  • 8E. GalbraithM
  • 17E. BocatM
  • 7J. McGlynnF
  • 11L. CisséF
  • 13J. DevennyF
Substitutes
  • 15G. HirstF
  • 42M. ManhoefF
  • 4B. PearsonM
  • 40M. TalovierovD
  • 22J. TchamadeuD
  • 9R. BoženíkF
  • 24J. GriffithsG
  • 21L. BombinoD
  • 10Bae Jun-HoM
Coach: M. Robins

Form going into Derby vs Stoke City

Derby

All competitions we cover

  • L1-4away to QPR14 October 2026
  • D1-1Wrexham10 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Burnley19 September 2026
  • L1-2Birmingham12 September 2026
  • L0-1West Brom9 September 2026

Stoke City

All competitions we cover

  • L2-3Middlesbrough13 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
  • W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Cardiff8 September 2026

What these results say

  • Derby did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Derby conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Derby scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Stoke City conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Stoke City.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
23Derby152491430-1610
3Stoke City159242418+629

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Derby vs Stoke City

  • 6 April 2026Derby 2–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 9 August 2025Stoke City 3–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 3 May 2025Derby 0–0 Stoke CityChampionship
  • 2 November 2024Stoke City 2–1 DerbyChampionship
  • 22 July 2023Derby 3–0 Stoke CityFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 December 2021Stoke City 1–2 DerbyChampionship

The full Derby vs Stoke City record →

Leading scorers: Derby and Stoke City

Derby

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Stoke City

GoalsAssists

  • J. McGlynn52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Stoke City won 1–0 at Derby. The model had leaned towards a win for Derby at 39% and given a win for Stoke City 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Luke Graham 49' for Stoke City. On expected goals it finished 1.07–0.62.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Derby a 30.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 25.1% after a win, 31.1% after a draw, 35.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 35.1%, 4.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.