17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Norwich vs Portsmouth Championship prediction & result

Carrow Road, Norwich
Referee: Gavin Ward
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Norwich 0-1 Portsmouth.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Norwich, 26% draw, 27% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Norwich at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Norwich0%Draw5%Portsmouth95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Benjamin Chriseneout: Darlin Yongwa
45'
51'
⚽Marko Milovanović (pen)
55'
Marko Milovanović
🔁Andre Brooksout: Lucien Mahovo
57'
🔁Anis Ben Slimaneout: Paris Maghoma
57'
60'
🔁Iyad Mohamedout: Ebou Adams
64'
Ryan Kavuma-McQueen
Oscar Schwartau
66'
70'
🔁Ryan Kavuma-McQueenout: Odin Bailey
71'
🔁Marko Milovanovićout: Tyrese Shade
🔁Oscar Schwartauout: Mathias Kvistgaarden
73'
80'
🔁Marlon Packout: Terry Devlin
Mathias Kvistgaarden
90'
Darlin Yongwa
90+3'

Match stats — Norwich vs Portsmouth

55%Possession45%
9Shots9
2On target2
1Corners1
0.37xG1.25

Goals against chances

Norwich0 from 0.37 xGabout what the chances were worth
Portsmouth1 from 1.25 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Norwich 4-2-3-1
  • 32D. GrimshawG
  • 3J. StaceyD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 33J. CórdobaD
  • 14B. ChriseneD
  • 16Jacob WrightM
  • 7P. MattssonM
  • 11A. BrooksM
  • 20A. Ben SlimaneM
  • 29O. SchwartauM
  • 24J. MakamaF
Substitutes
  • 40C. AnsenG
  • 6H. DarlingD
  • 26S. FieldM
  • 35K. FisherD
  • 30M. KvistgaardenF
  • 25P. MaghomaM
  • 12L. MahovoD
  • 13D. YongwaD
  • 46E. Mundle-SmithF
Coach: P. Clement
Portsmouth 4-2-3-1
  • 1N. SchmidG
  • 22Z. SwansonD
  • 5R. PooleD
  • 55M. DiaD
  • 16J. MeghomaD
  • 7M. PackM
  • 37I. MohamedM
  • 11A. KamaraM
  • 10A. SegecicM
  • 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
  • 29M. MilovanovićF
Substitutes
  • 31D. BielicaG
  • 9C. BishopF
  • 24T. DevlinM
  • 32E. KennyM
  • 30B. KillipG
  • 17T. ShadeF
  • 19R. SheinM
  • 27O. BaileyM
  • 38E. AdamsM
Coach: John Mousinho

Form going into Norwich vs Portsmouth

Norwich

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Southampton14 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Swansea10 October 2026
  • L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
  • L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
  • W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026

Portsmouth

All competitions we cover

  • W3-2Sheffield Utd14 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Southampton11 October 2026
  • D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
  • W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026

What these results say

  • Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Norwich failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Norwich157083224+821
11Portsmouth156452018+222

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Norwich vs Portsmouth

  • 3 April 2026Norwich 1–1 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 16 August 2025Portsmouth 1–2 NorwichChampionship
  • 18 April 2025Norwich 3–5 PortsmouthChampionship
  • 10 December 2024Portsmouth 0–0 NorwichChampionship
  • 5 January 2019Norwich 0–1 PortsmouthFA Cup

The full Norwich vs Portsmouth record →

Leading scorers: Norwich and Portsmouth

Norwich

GoalsAssists

  • M. Touré50

Portsmouth

No player in Championship's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Portsmouth won 1–0 at Norwich. The model had leaned towards a win for Norwich at 47% and given a win for Portsmouth 27%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goal: Marko Milovanović (penalty) 51' for Portsmouth. On expected goals it finished 0.37–1.25.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Portsmouth a 11.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.1% after a win, 11.5% after a draw, 13.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.1%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.