Middlesbrough vs Cardiff Championship prediction & result
Final score: Middlesbrough 2-2 Cardiff.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Middlesbrough, 25% draw, 23% Cardiff — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Middlesbrough at 52%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1R. VítekG
- 2C. BrittainD
- 12L. AylingD
- 4A. PhillipsD
- 30Neto BorgesD
- 10A. MorrisM
- 29A. MalandaM
- 11A. Cozier-DuberryM
- 8R. McGreeM
- 9T. ConwayM
- 22K. JosephF
- 16J. SarmientoF
- 14M. Peart-HarrisM
- 17M. ArfstenD
- 18C. BarronM
- 6S. BerhalterM
- 31S. BrynnG
- 3S. ByramD
- 19Leo CastledineM
- 7W. LankshearF
- 1N. TrottG
- 44R. KpakioD
- 5K. BielikD
- 4G. OshoD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 11O. TannerM
- 27J. ColwillM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 16C. WillockM
- 8J. MoylanF
- 2W. FishD
- 43P. MorenoM
- 52T. PerrettM
- 23C. ScanlonD
- 33R. TankiewiczM
- 14D. TurnbullM
- 39I. DaviesF
- 30H. TyrerG
- 50Charlie HoltM
Form going into Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
Middlesbrough
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Stoke City13 October 2026
- W1-0Wolves10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Birmingham19 September 2026
- D2-2Millwall15 September 2026
- W4-3Norwich12 September 2026
Cardiff
All competitions we cover
- W5-1Watford13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
- D1-1Stoke City8 September 2026
What these results say
- Middlesbrough went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Middlesbrough conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 30 | 19 | +11 | 29 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Middlesbrough vs Cardiff
- 4 January 2025Middlesbrough 1–1 CardiffChampionship
- 31 August 2024Cardiff 0–2 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 27 April 2024Cardiff 1–4 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 3 October 2023Middlesbrough 2–0 CardiffChampionship
- 11 February 2023Cardiff 1–3 MiddlesbroughChampionship
- 13 September 2022Middlesbrough 2–3 CardiffChampionship
Leading scorers: Middlesbrough and Cardiff
Middlesbrough
GoalsAssists
- W. Lankshear130
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan103
- Y. Salech51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Middlesbrough and Cardiff drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Middlesbrough at 52% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jack Moylan 22' for Cardiff, Ollie·Tanner 45+1' for Cardiff, Tommy Conway 58' for Middlesbrough, will lankshear 61' for Middlesbrough. Sent off: Gabriel Osho (Cardiff) 83'. On expected goals it finished 2.78–0.91.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Middlesbrough a 64.1% chance to finish in the top four: 68.3% after a win, 61.3% after a draw, 56.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 61.3%, 2.8 points lower than before the match.
For Cardiff the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.5% going in: 4.4% after a win, 7.0% after a draw, 8.4% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.0%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Middlesbrough v Cardiff has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 50% / 27% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 52% / 25% / 23%: the biggest move is Middlesbrough's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Middlesbrough win52%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Cardiff win23%=
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.