Millwall vs Lincoln Championship prediction & result
Final score: Millwall 2-2 Lincoln.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Millwall, 26% draw, 20% Lincoln — fair odds of 1.85, 3.85 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Millwall at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Millwall vs Lincoln
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34F. MarschallG
- 4T. CramaD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 17M. SykesM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 22K. LisbieM
- 13L. DykesF
- 45A. DoughtyM
- 11R. EsseM
- 18R. LeonardD
- 16D. KellyM
- 12E. BaggottD
- 29Z. LovelaceF
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 2J. Osei-TutuD
- 25L. CundleM
- 1G. WickensG
- 4A. CoubișD
- 25D. ElereweD
- 15S. BradleyD
- 3A. ReachD
- 26Y. KonakM
- 24I. VarfolomeevM
- 7R. HackettM
- 17R. StreetM
- 16D. JefferiesM
- 34F. DraperF
- 20C. ElderD
- 23J. HonohanD
- 11M. LadefogedF
- 27C. OgbeneF
- 19I. OlaofeF
- 33D. OyegokeD
- 6R. TowlerD
- 8T. BaylissM
- 46J. GauciG
Form going into Millwall vs Lincoln
Millwall
All competitions we cover
- L0-1Swansea13 October 2026
- W1-0away to Preston10 October 2026
- D2-2West Ham19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough15 September 2026
- L1-3away to Blackburn12 September 2026
Lincoln
All competitions we cover
- L0-6West Ham14 October 2026
- L0-3away to Sheffield Utd10 October 2026
- L1-2Swansea19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City15 September 2026
- W1-0away to Preston12 September 2026
What these results say
- Millwall failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Millwall conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 18 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
The result against the call
Millwall and Lincoln drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Millwall at 54% and given a draw 26%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Andrei Coubiș 1' for Lincoln, Robert Nicholas Street 33' for Lincoln, Kyrell Lisbie 63' for Millwall, Jake Cooper 82' for Millwall. Sent off: Deji Elerewe (Lincoln) 84'. On expected goals it finished 1.87–0.75.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Millwall a 16.0% chance to finish in the top four: 17.7% after a win, 13.7% after a draw, 12.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 13.7%, 2.3 points lower than before the match.
For Lincoln the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 33.5% going in: 26.8% after a win, 32.1% after a draw, 35.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 32.1%, 1.4 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Millwall v Lincoln has moved
First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 31% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 54% / 26% / 20%: the biggest move is Millwall's chance of winning, up 16 points.
- Millwall win54%▲ +16
- Draw26%▼ −5
- Lincoln win20%▼ −11
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.