17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Birmingham vs QPR Championship prediction & result

Birmingham
Referee: Thomas Kirk, England
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Birmingham 3-0 QPR.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Birmingham, 28% draw, 27% QPR — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Birmingham at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Birmingham99%Draw1%QPR0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Jhon Elmer Solís Romero
23'
⚽Liam Millarassist: Tomoki Iwata
27'
44'
Harvey Vale
⚽Liam Millarassist: Tomoki Iwata
49'
50'
Rayan Jawad Kolli
🔁Jhon Elmer Solís Romeroout: Max Bird
57'
🔁Patrick Robertsout: Carlos Vicente
57'
62'
🔁Rayan Jawad Kolliout: Richard Kone
Christoph·Klarer
69'
🔁Liam Millarout: Demarai Gray
71'
72'
🔁Jake Clarke-Salterout: Jonathan Varane
81'
🔁Paul Smythout: Koki Saito
81'
🔁Glen Kamaraout: Leon Scarlett
🔁August Priskeout: Luis Vasquez
86'
⚽Demarai Grayassist: Luis Vasquez
90+1'

Match stats — Birmingham vs QPR

52%Possession48%
11Shots12
5On target4
0Corners4
1.34xG1.17

Goals against chances

Birmingham3 from 1.34 xGmore than the chances were worth
QPR0 from 1.17 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Birmingham 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. BeadleG
  • 26B. Osayi-SamuelD
  • 5P. NeumannD
  • 4C. KlarerD
  • 20A. CochraneD
  • 24T. IwataM
  • 14J. SolisM
  • 16P. RobertsM
  • 28J. StansfieldM
  • 17L. MillarM
  • 9A. PriskeF
Substitutes
  • 21R. AllsopG
  • 18M. BirdM
  • 33M. DuckschF
  • 23D. FryD
  • 19T. Gardner-HickmanM
  • 10D. GrayF
  • 2E. LairdD
  • 32L. VázquezF
  • 7Carlos VicenteF
Coach: C. Davies
QPR 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 2K. AdamsonD
  • 3J. DunneD
  • 6J. Clarke-SalterD
  • 12B. KemperD
  • 18G. KamaraM
  • 5R. EdwardsM
  • 17K. PokuM
  • 20H. ValeM
  • 11P. SmythM
  • 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
Substitutes
  • 40J. VaraneM
  • 13C. WardG
  • 14K. SaitoF
  • 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
  • 4L. MorrisonD
  • 24N. MadsenM
  • 22R. KoneF
  • 23I. AlemayehuM
  • 33Leon ScarlettF
Coach: Julien Stéphan

Form going into Birmingham vs QPR

Birmingham

All competitions we cover

  • W4-0Preston13 October 2026
  • W1-0away to West Brom10 October 2026
  • D2-2Middlesbrough19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Derby12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Norwich9 September 2026

QPR

All competitions we cover

  • W4-1Derby14 October 2026
  • D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
  • D2-2Preston19 September 2026
  • D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026

What these results say

  • Birmingham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Birmingham had three goals or more.
  • QPR went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Birmingham158522814+1429
8QPR156632418+624

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Birmingham vs QPR

  • 11 March 2026Birmingham 1–0 QPRChampionship
  • 9 December 2025QPR 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 29 March 2024QPR 2–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 22 September 2023Birmingham 0–0 QPRChampionship
  • 18 March 2023QPR 0–1 BirminghamChampionship
  • 28 October 2022Birmingham 2–0 QPRChampionship

The full Birmingham vs QPR record →

Leading scorers: Birmingham and QPR

Birmingham

GoalsAssists

  • A. Priske61
  • L. Millar43

QPR

GoalsAssists

  • R. Kone51

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Birmingham beat QPR 3–0. The model had made a win for Birmingham its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Liam Millar 27' for Birmingham, Liam Millar 49' for Birmingham, Demarai Gray 90+1' for Birmingham. On expected goals it finished 1.34–1.17.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Birmingham a 30.9% chance to finish in the top four: 34.9% after a win, 28.3% after a draw, 24.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.9%, 4 points higher than before the match.

For QPR the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 16.5% going in: 20.5% after a win, 17.3% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.9%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Championship season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Birmingham v QPR has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 42% / 30% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 45% / 28% / 27%: the biggest move is Birmingham's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Birmingham win45%▲ +3
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. QPR win27%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.