17 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ried vs Austria Vienna Bundesliga prediction & result

Innviertel Arena, Ried
Referee: Manuel Baumann
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Ried 3-2 Austria Vienna.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Ried, 27% draw, 28% Austria Vienna — fair odds of 2.22, 3.70 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ried at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ried99%Draw1%Austria Vienna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
⚽Johannes Eggesteinassist: Manfred Fischer
⚽Stefan Schwabassist: Martin Rasner
23'
J. Rhodes
25'
⚽Philipp Pomerassist: Moegamat Yusuf Maart
28'
45'
🔁Sanel Saljicout: Julian Hettwer
Ante Bajic
55'
🔁Evan Eghosa Aisowierenout: Isaac Thelin
66'
🔁Fabian Hubert Rossdorferout: Dejan Radonjic
66'
🔁J. Rhodesout: Oliver Sorg
66'
Stefan Schwab
68'
71'
🔁Lee Tae-seokout: Matteo Schablas
🔁Martin Rasnerout: Lukas Malicsek
73'
75'
🔁Vasilije Markovicout: Kelvin Owusu Boateng
Moegamat Yusuf Maart
79'
⚽Isaac Thelin (pen)
82'
🔁Ante Bajicout: Joris Boguo
83'
90'
🔁Manfred Fischerout: Florian Wustinger
90+2'
⚽Johannes Eggestein

Match stats — Ried vs Austria Vienna

40%Possession60%
10Shots14
7On target4
4Corners10
2.96xG1.96

Goals against chances

Ried3 from 2.96 xGabout what the chances were worth
Austria Vienna2 from 1.96 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ried 4-3-3
  • 1A. LeitnerG
  • 18F. RossdorferD
  • 28S. ChukwudiD
  • 30O. SteurerD
  • 17P. PomerD
  • 8M. RasnerM
  • 6Y. MaartM
  • 22S. SchwabM
  • 12A. BajićF
  • 47Evan Eghosa AisowierenF
  • 11J. RhodesF
Substitutes
  • 29L. CapanD
  • 13H. HankičG
  • 92I. Kiese ThelinF
  • 4L. MalicsekD
  • 10J. NasraweM
  • 5D. RadonjicD
  • 9N. SissokoF
  • 7O. SorgD
  • 15J. BoguoF
Coach: M. Despotović
Austria Vienna 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. Şahin-RadlingerG
  • 26R. RanftlD
  • 46J. HandlD
  • 3I. BuhariD
  • 17Lee Tae-SeokD
  • 5V. MüllerM
  • 7V. MarkovicM
  • 40Daniel NnodimM
  • 30M. FischerM
  • 10S. SaljicM
  • 19J. EggesteinF
Substitutes
  • 22F. WustingerM
  • 44V. ToiflD
  • 21Matteo SchablasM
  • 6Philipp MaybachM
  • 16Lee Kang-HeeM
  • 99M. KosG
  • 20J. HettwerF
  • 42D. EwemadeF
  • 14K. BoatengF
Coach: S. Helm

Form going into Ried vs Austria Vienna

Ried

Bundesliga

  • W2-1away to WSG Wattens10 October 2026

Austria Vienna

Bundesliga

  • L0-2Sturm Graz10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Austria Bundesliga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Ried124442122-116
11Austria Vienna122281123-128

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ried vs Austria Vienna

  • 8 March 2026Ried 0–2 Austria ViennaBundesliga
  • 20 September 2025Austria Vienna 3–2 RiedBundesliga
  • 4 March 2023Ried 1–3 Austria ViennaBundesliga
  • 18 September 2022Austria Vienna 3–0 RiedBundesliga
  • 23 October 2021Austria Vienna 4–1 RiedBundesliga
  • 25 July 2021Ried 2–1 Austria ViennaBundesliga

Leading scorers: Ried and Austria Vienna

Ried

GoalsAssists

  • S. Schwab42
  • P. Pomer41
  • I. Kiese Thelin40

Austria Vienna

No player in Bundesliga's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Ried beat Austria Vienna 3–2. The model had made a win for Ried its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Johannes Eggestein 18' for Austria Vienna, Stefan Schwab 23' for Ried, Philipp Pomer 28' for Ried, Isaac Thelin (penalty) 82' for Ried, Johannes Eggestein 90+2' for Austria Vienna. On expected goals it finished 2.96–1.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ried a 9.6% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.9% after a win, 10.4% after a draw, 13.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.9%, 3.7 points lower than before the match.

For Austria Vienna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 37.5% going in: 25.0% after a win, 37.5% after a draw, 44.1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 44.1%, 6.6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ried v Austria Vienna has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 39% / 29% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 45% / 27% / 28%: the biggest move is Ried's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Ried win45%▲ +6
  2. Draw27%▼ −2
  3. Austria Vienna win28%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.