19 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Waterford vs Galway United Premier Division prediction & result

Regional Sports Centre, Waterford
Referee: Oliver Moran
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Waterford 3-2 Galway United.

Before kick-off the model made it 41% Waterford, 28% draw, 31% Galway United — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Waterford at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Waterford96%Draw4%Galway United0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Padraig Amondassist: Tom Lonergan
18'
32'
Stephen Walsh
Noah Mawene
34'
⚽Padraig Amond
45+1'
45'
🔁Kristopher Twardekout: francely lomboto
45'
🔁Ed McCarthyout: Matthew Wolfe
52'
Gianfranco Facchineri
52'
⚽Lee Devitt Molloy
60'
⚽Stephen Walshassist: francely lomboto
Graham Coughlan
64'
67'
Aaron Bolger
74'
🔁Stephen Walshout: Frantz Pierrot
🔁C.Noonanout: Dean Mcmenamy
80'
🔁Noah Maweneout: Luke Heeney
80'
🔁Jordan Houstonout: Jørgen Voilås
81'
⚽Tom Lonerganassist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
89'
Tom Lonergan
90'
90'
🔁Lee Devitt Molloyout: Junior Thiam
90'
🔁Aaron Bolgerout: Dylan Connolly

Match stats — Waterford vs Galway United

54%Possession46%
18Shots10
7On target5
6Corners3
1.84xG0.61

Goals against chances

Waterford3 from 1.84 xGmore than the chances were worth
Galway United2 from 0.61 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Waterford 4-4-2
  • 1S. McMullanG
  • 5J. MahonD
  • 16H. CannD
  • 13K. LongD
  • 3Benny CoutoD
  • 2J. HoustonM
  • 7N. MaweneM
  • 8E. McLaughlinM
  • 10C. NoonanM
  • 9P. AmondF
  • 18T. LonerganF
Substitutes
  • 11T. CoyleF
  • 32G. AmeduD
  • 6J. AshtonD
  • 21Arlo Ricky Hugh DohertyG
  • 15L. HeeneyM
  • 17J. FariaM
  • 27D. McMenamyM
  • 50Noah O'BrienD
  • 20J. VoilåsF
Coach: G. Coughlan
Galway United 4-2-3-1
  • 16Hugo Alberto Pires da CunhaG
  • 3Connor BarrattD
  • 2A. O'ConnorD
  • 12Gianfranco FacchineriD
  • 20L. DevittD
  • 8A. BolgerM
  • 4J. KeohaneM
  • 11K. TwardekM
  • 10D. HurleyM
  • 24E. McCarthyM
  • 7S. WalshF
Substitutes
  • 32Vincent AngeliniG
  • 21D. ConnollyF
  • 9F. LombotoF
  • 28J. MorahanD
  • 23F. PierrotF
  • 17Junior ThiamM
  • 54C. WhittakerM
  • 14M. WolfeM
Coach: John Caulfield

Form going into Waterford vs Galway United

Waterford

Premier Division

  • L1-2away to Bohemians16 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026

Galway United

Premier Division

  • W2-0Shamrock Rovers16 October 2026
  • D1-1Shelbourne25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Premier Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Waterford361013135461-743
8Galway United361012144653-742

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Waterford vs Galway United

  • 25 July 2026Galway United 0–0 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 24 April 2026Waterford 1–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 16 March 2026Galway United 4–3 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 1 November 2025Waterford 1–1 Galway UnitedPremier Division
  • 25 July 2025Galway United 2–4 WaterfordPremier Division
  • 9 May 2025Waterford 1–0 Galway UnitedPremier Division

Leading scorers: Waterford and Galway United

Waterford

GoalsAssists

  • T. Lonergan167
  • P. Amond141

Galway United

GoalsAssists

  • K. Twardek86
  • J. Keohane73

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Waterford beat Galway United 3–2. The model had made a win for Waterford its most likely outcome, at 41%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Padraig Amond 18' for Waterford, Padraig Amond 45+1' for Waterford, Lee Devitt Molloy 52' for Galway United, Stephen Walsh 60' for Galway United, Tom Lonergan 89' for Waterford. On expected goals it finished 1.84–0.61.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Galway United a 5.4% chance to finish in the top four: 14.1% after a win, 2.4% after a draw, under 1% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at under 1%, 4.8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.