Guingamp vs PAU Ligue 2 prediction & result
Final score: Guingamp 1-2 PAU.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Guingamp, 27% draw, 33% PAU — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
Guingamp at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Guingamp vs PAU
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 16Adrián OrtoláG
- 2E. KoffiD
- 24J. DiangangaD
- 35N. FondjaD
- 5T. OllilaD
- 11T. AverlantM
- 25T. DucrocqM
- 21T. AhileM
- 20S. Ben BrahimM
- 10A. HemiaF
- 18S. KieltF
- 8F. Da SilvaM
- 22B. BokanguM
- 1T. BartoucheG
- 38E. AucanM
- 33Ibrahim FombaD
- 4D. LouiserreM
- 31J. MatondoM
- 3J. MatumonaD
- 17A. SamouraF
- 1B. MaubleuG
- 2T. PouillyD
- 29G. PaquiezD
- 23A. BriançonD
- 88A. BambaD
- 39M. TourraineD
- 10B. BrahimiM
- 5L. RajotM
- 6C. FallM
- 9B. LeyeF
- 7H. BenaliF
- 8S. BasseD
- 25Q. DaubinM
- 4A. DodoteD
- 27L. GadegbekuM
- 56Abdoulaye MbayeF
- 22R. BahengD
- 30E. SallesG
- 97A. AbdallahD
- 18J. SebasF
Form going into Guingamp vs PAU
Guingamp
Ligue 2
- L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026
PAU
Ligue 2
- W3-2Laval9 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Guingamp | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 14 |
| 5 | PAU | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Guingamp vs PAU
- 17 April 2026PAU 2–1 GuingampLigue 2
- 8 November 2025Guingamp 2–2 PAULigue 2
- 10 May 2025PAU 1–3 GuingampLigue 2
- 18 October 2024Guingamp 0–1 PAULigue 2
- 27 April 2024PAU 1–2 GuingampLigue 2
Leading scorers: Guingamp and PAU
Guingamp
GoalsAssists
- B. Bokangu40
PAU
GoalsAssists
- B. Leye41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
PAU won 2–1 at Guingamp. The model had leaned towards a win for Guingamp at 40% and given a win for PAU 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Cheikh Fall 6' for PAU, Bilal Brahimi 33' for PAU, Teddy Andami Averlant 75' for Guingamp. On expected goals it finished 2.16–0.63.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Guingamp a 33.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 27.2% after a win, 35.7% after a draw, 40.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.6%, 6.7 points higher than before the match.
For PAU the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 18.1% going in: 11.8% after a win, 18.1% after a draw, 21.8% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 11.8%, 6.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.