17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC

Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron Premier League prediction & result

Anzhi Arena, Kaspijsk
Referee: Sergey Karasev
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Dinamo Makhachkala 1-1 Akron.

Before kick-off the model made it 46% Dinamo Makhachkala, 25% draw, 29% Akron — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Makhachkala at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dinamo Makhachkala5%Draw91%Akron4%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kirill Zinovich
23'
43'
Rodrigo Escoval
🔁Valdemiro Pinto Domingosout: Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
45'
🔁Kirill Zinovichout: Daniil Lesovoy
45'
45'
🔁Dudu Rodriguesout: Maksim Boldyrev
🔁Daler Kuzyaevout: Marat Apshatsev
62'
68'
🔁Karlen Hovhannisyanout: Milutin Vidosavljević
69'
🔁Vyacheslav Bardybakhinout: Yomar Rocha
⚽Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad
72'
🔁Gamid Agalarovout: Ilyas Akhmedov
75'
81'
🔁Artem Shumanskiyout: Dmitriy Pestryakov
87'
⚽Roberto Fernándezassist: Slobodan Tedić
88'
🔁Roberto Fernándezout: Denis Popenkov
🔁Temirkan Sundukovout: Soslan Kagermazov
88'
90+2'
Milutin Vidosavljević

Match stats — Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron

37%Possession63%
10Shots12
3On target2
1Corners8
1.6xG0.91

Goals against chances

Dinamo Makhachkala1 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Akron1 from 0.91 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dinamo Makhachkala 4-2-3-1
  • 33N. KarabashevG
  • 23M. MakhamadjonovD
  • 24A. AlarcónD
  • 99M. AlibekovD
  • 14D. KuzyaevD
  • 47N. GlushkovM
  • 16H. MrezigueM
  • 19K. ZinovichM
  • 11MiroM
  • 77T. SundukovM
  • 25G. AgalarovF
Substitutes
  • 30D. AleksandrovM
  • 6M. ApshatsevM
  • 21Abdulpasha DzhabrailovM
  • 10M. HosseinnezhadM
  • 13S. KagermazovD
  • 8V. KhubulovM
  • 88D. LesovoyM
  • 39T. MagomedovG
  • 9R. MagomedovM
Coach: V. Evseev
Akron 4-3-3
  • 88V. GudievG
  • 13V. BardybakhinD
  • 26João EscovalD
  • 19M. BokoevD
  • 21R. FernándezD
  • 15S. LončarM
  • 8K. BistrovićM
  • 6K. HovhannisyanM
  • 11DuduF
  • 9S. TedićF
  • 99A. ShumanskiyF
Substitutes
  • 10Kevin ArevaloM
  • 81N. BazilevskiyM
  • 91M. BoldyrevM
  • 69A. DmitrievF
  • 24I. NedelcearuD
  • 71D. PestryakovF
  • 89D. PopenkovM
  • 2Y. RochaD
  • 17Artem SidorenkoM
Coach: S. Blagojević

Form going into Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron

Dinamo Makhachkala

Premier League

  • L0-4away to FC Orenburg10 October 2026

Akron

Premier League

  • L0-1away to FC Rostov9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Dinamo Makhachkala145181726-916
14Akron142661725-812

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dinamo Makhachkala vs Akron

  • 23 April 2026Akron 1–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
  • 8 August 2025Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
  • 2 May 2025Akron 1–0 Dinamo MakhachkalaPremier League
  • 26 October 2024Dinamo Makhachkala 1–1 AkronPremier League
  • 12 May 2024Akron 3–1 Dinamo MakhachkalaFirst League
  • 8 October 2023Dinamo Makhachkala 0–1 AkronFirst League

Leading scorers: Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron

Dinamo Makhachkala

GoalsAssists

  • G. Agalarov50

Akron

GoalsAssists

  • Gilson Benchimol42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dinamo Makhachkala and Akron drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Dinamo Makhachkala at 46% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mohammadjavad Hosseinnejad 72' for Dinamo Makhachkala, Roberto Fernández 87' for Akron. On expected goals it finished 1.60–0.91.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dinamo Makhachkala a 13.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 8.5% after a win, 15.1% after a draw, 20.2% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 15.1%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

For Akron the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 52.0% going in: 38.7% after a win, 51.4% after a draw, 58.5% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 51.4%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dinamo Makhachkala v Akron has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 46% / 27% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Akron's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Dinamo Makhachkala win46%=
  2. Draw25%▼ −2
  3. Akron win29%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.