17 October 2026, 16:30 UTC

Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result

RZD Arena, Moscow
Referee: Nikita Novikov
Full time3 – 3

Final score: Lokomotiv 3-3 FC Krasnodar.

Before kick-off the model made it 36% Lokomotiv, 28% draw, 36% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Lokomotiv at 36%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Lokomotiv96%Draw4%FC Krasnodar0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

César Montes
2'
5'
⚽Joao Batxiassist: Jhon Cordoba
Gerzino Nyamsi
12'
⚽Nikolay Titkov
16'
🔁Sergey Pinyaevout: Aleksandr Rudenko
58'
61'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Magomed Ozdoev
🔁Zelimkhan Bakaevout: Aleksandr Kovalenko
70'
🔁Nikolay Titkovout: Ilya Eremeev
70'
⚽Aleksandr Rudenkoassist: Maksim Nenakhov
71'
73'
🔁Ilya Vakhaniaout: Valentin Paltsev
73'
🔁Christianout: Juan Manuel Boselli
Maksim Nenakhov
77'
77'
🔁Kevin Pinaout: Dmitriy Vorobyov
⚽Aleksandr Kovalenko
78'
86'
⚽Lucas Olazaassist: Joao Batxi
🔁Andrey Mostovoyout: Danila Godyaev
88'
90+1'
⚽Jhon Cordobaassist: Joao Batxi
90+4'
Joao Batxi

Match stats — Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar

39%Possession61%
12Shots19
7On target10
2Corners4
2.1xG1.37

Goals against chances

Lokomotiv3 from 2.10 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Krasnodar3 from 1.37 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Lokomotiv 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MitryushkinG
  • 24M. NenakhovD
  • 5G. NyamsiD
  • 23C. MontesD
  • 45A. SiljanovD
  • 18N. TitkovM
  • 6S. BabkinM
  • 7Z. BakaevM
  • 9S. PinyaevM
  • 77A. MostovoyM
  • 27N. KomlichenkoF
Substitutes
  • 19A. RudenkoF
  • 88M. ShchetininM
  • 11V. RakovF
  • 14G. DzhikiyaD
  • 75I. EremeevM
  • 47D. GodyaevM
  • 8A. KovalenkoM
  • 22I. LantratovG
  • 3Lucas FassonD
Coach: M. Galaktionov
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 40I. VakhaniaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 11BatxiM
  • 9J. CórdobaF
Substitutes
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 27E. BurkinM
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev

Form going into Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar

Lokomotiv

Premier League

  • W5-0away to Fakel10 October 2026

FC Krasnodar

Premier League

  • L2-3Zenit10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Lokomotiv142571621-511
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Lokomotiv vs FC Krasnodar

  • 23 November 2025Lokomotiv 1–1 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 26 July 2025FC Krasnodar 1–2 LokomotivPremier League
  • 8 December 2024FC Krasnodar 0–0 LokomotivPremier League
  • 1 September 2024Lokomotiv 0–3 FC KrasnodarPremier League
  • 31 March 2024Lokomotiv Moscow 1–1 KrasnodarPremier League
  • 19 August 2023Krasnodar 1–1 Lokomotiv MoscowPremier League

Leading scorers: Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar

Lokomotiv

GoalsAssists

  • N. Titkov31

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Lokomotiv and FC Krasnodar drew 3–3. The goals: Joao Batxi 5' for FC Krasnodar, Nikolay Titkov 16' for Lokomotiv, Aleksandr Rudenko 71' for Lokomotiv, Aleksandr Kovalenko 78' for Lokomotiv, Lucas Olaza 86' for FC Krasnodar, Jhon Cordoba 90+1' for FC Krasnodar. On expected goals it finished 2.10–1.37.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Lokomotiv a 7.1% chance to finish in the top four: 9.8% after a win, 5.6% after a draw, 4.0% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 5.6%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.

For FC Krasnodar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 71.7% going in: 78.1% after a win, 71.2% after a draw, 65.8% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 71.2%, 0.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Lokomotiv v FC Krasnodar has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 30% / 30% / 40% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 36% / 28% / 36%: the biggest move is Lokomotiv's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Lokomotiv win36%▲ +6
  2. Draw28%▼ −2
  3. FC Krasnodar win36%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.