17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Paks vs Gyori ETO FC NB I prediction & result

Paks
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Paks 1-2 Gyori ETO FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Paks, 26% draw, 39% Gyori ETO FC — fair odds of 2.86, 3.85 and 2.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Gyori ETO FC at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Paks0%Draw5%Gyori ETO FC95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Kristóf Papp
8'
29'
Élan Ricardo
39'
⚽viktor djukanovicassist: Luka Kulenović
milan gyorfi
41'
42'
⚽viktor djukanovicassist: Daniel Štefulj
🔁József Windeckerout: Kevin Horvath
45'
🔁Zsolt Harasztiout: Jozsef Szalai
45'
🔁milan gyorfiout: M. Simuț
45'
⚽Barna Tóthassist: Milan Pető
47'
65'
🔁Marcell huszarout: Á. Umathum
65'
🔁Élan Ricardoout: Željko Gavrić
76'
🔁Jewison Bennetteout: Kevin Bánáti
🔁Barna Tóthout: János Hahn
76'
🔁Gabor Vasout: Balázs Wiesner
81'
84'
🔁viktor djukanovicout: Stefan Vlădoiu
84'
🔁Luka Kulenovićout: M. Marong
Balázs Wiesner
85'
90+2'
Samuel Petras

Match stats — Paks vs Gyori ETO FC

62%Possession38%
22Shots11
4On target6
8Corners0
1.61xG1.31

Goals against chances

Paks1 from 1.61 xGless than the chances were worth
Gyori ETO FC2 from 1.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Paks 3-2-4-1
  • 28M. GyetvánG
  • 12G. VasD
  • 2Á. KinyikD
  • 30J. SzabóD
  • 6M. GyőrfiM
  • 14E. SilyeM
  • 10Z. HarasztiM
  • 21K. PappM
  • 22J. WindeckerM
  • 17M. PetőM
  • 29B. TóthF
Substitutes
  • 8B. BaloghM
  • 3Á. DebreceniD
  • 18G. GyurkitsM
  • 9J. HahnF
  • 19K. HorváthM
  • 1Á. KovácsikG
  • 4A. LapuM
  • 24B. LenzsérD
  • 7J. SzalaiF
Coach: G. Bognár
Gyori ETO FC 5-4-1
  • 99S. PetrášG
  • 19J. BennetteD
  • 37N. UrblíkD
  • 24M. KrpićD
  • 96M. HuszárD
  • 23D. ŠtefuljD
  • 14M. SzépM
  • 77Élan RicardoM
  • 7P. AgbaM
  • 9L. KulenovićF
  • 34V. ĐukanovićF
Substitutes
  • 90K. BánátiM
  • 2Ș. VlădoiuD
  • 21E. BödőM
  • 16B. MegyeriG
  • 88M. GigerF
  • 20B. BíróD
  • 26Á. UmathumD
  • 30M. MarongF
  • 1Botond HajczingerG
Coach: E. Juárez

Form going into Paks vs Gyori ETO FC

Paks

NB I

  • W3-0MTK Budapest10 October 2026

Gyori ETO FC

NB I

  • L0-1Puskas Academy11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Paks136252422+220
3Gyori ETO FC136522215+723

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Paks vs Gyori ETO FC

  • 22 February 2026Paks 3–4 Gyori ETO FCNB I
  • 1 November 2025Gyori ETO FC 0–0 PaksNB I
  • 27 July 2025Paks 3–3 Gyori ETO FCNB I
  • 26 April 2025Gyori ETO FC 2–0 PaksNB I
  • 1 February 2025Paks 1–1 Gyori ETO FCNB I
  • 22 September 2024Gyori ETO FC 2–1 PaksNB I

Leading scorers: Paks and Gyori ETO FC

Paks

GoalsAssists

  • M. Pető61
  • J. Szalai61

Gyori ETO FC

GoalsAssists

  • V. Đukanović40
  • L. Kulenović32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Gyori ETO FC won 2–1 at Paks. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Gyori ETO FC at 39%. The goals: viktor djukanovic 39' for Gyori ETO FC, viktor djukanovic 42' for Gyori ETO FC, Barna Tóth 47' for Paks. On expected goals it finished 1.61–1.31.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Paks a 41.3% chance to finish in the top four: 49.1% after a win, 41.7% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 6.7 points lower than before the match.

For Gyori ETO FC the question was the chance to win the league, 28.8% going in: 34.1% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 23.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.1%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Paks v Gyori ETO FC has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 32% / 27% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 35% / 26% / 39%: the biggest move is Paks's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Paks win35%▲ +3
  2. Draw26%▼ −1
  3. Gyori ETO FC win39%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.