17 October 2026, 17:30 UTC

Ujpest vs Puskas Academy NB I prediction & result

Szusza Ferenc Stadion, Budapest
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Ujpest 0-1 Puskas Academy.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Ujpest, 27% draw, 36% Puskas Academy — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Ujpest at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ujpest0%Draw6%Puskas Academy94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

7'
Bendegúz Farkas
13'
🔁Roland Szolnokiout: Barna Pál
Aljosa Matko
28'
Krisztofer Horvath
45+1'
45+3'
Barna Pál
45'
🔁Michael okekeout: Urho Nissilä
62'
⚽András Némethassist: Wojciech Golla
🔁Krisztofer Horvathout: Ábel Krajcsovics
63'
🔁Ferenc Ujváryout: Gergő Bodnár
68'
🔁Etienne Amenyidoout: Arne Maier
68'
🔁Gleofilo Vlijterout: Muhamed Tijani
68'
73'
🔁Palkó Dárdaiout: Bence vekony
🔁Matija Ljujicout: Tizian Valentino Scharmer
76'
80'
🔁András Némethout: Lamin Colley
80'
🔁Martin Kernout: Z. Varga
80'
Z. Varga
83'
Lamin Colley
84'
Lamin Colley
84'
Laros Duarte
90+2'
Urho Nissilä

Match stats — Ujpest vs Puskas Academy

66%Possession34%
25Shots8
5On target3
6Corners3
2.15xG0.7

Goals against chances

Ujpest0 from 2.15 xGless than the chances were worth
Puskas Academy1 from 0.70 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Ujpest 4-2-3-1
  • 1P. SzappanosG
  • 36Ferenc UjvaryD
  • 3HeitorD
  • 94P. StronatiD
  • 20M. ZekeD
  • 88M. LjujićM
  • 8N. SzendreiM
  • 17A. MatkoM
  • 14E. AmenyidoM
  • 11K. HorváthM
  • 39G. VlijterF
Substitutes
  • 26M. TijaniF
  • 45A. AdemiM
  • 23D. BanaiG
  • 2J. BodnárD
  • 5A. FiolaD
  • 27Á. KrajcsovicsF
  • 10A. MaierM
  • 15M. MátéM
  • 43Márton Milán VargaM
Coach: Z. Szélesi
Puskas Academy 4-4-2
  • 72B. LehoczkiG
  • 88B. FarkasD
  • 14W. GollaD
  • 21G. HarutyunyanD
  • 22R. SzolnokiD
  • 10P. DárdaiM
  • 6L. DuarteM
  • 4Michael OkekeM
  • 8D. LukacsM
  • 90A. NémethF
  • 74M. KernF
Substitutes
  • 16U. NissiläM
  • 77K. MondovicsF
  • 1T. MarkekG
  • 9L. ColleyF
  • 20M. SoisaloF
  • 18B. VekonyM
  • 66Z. VargaM
  • 80Z. KrupaM
  • 51Žiga KosiM
Coach: L. Babó

Form going into Ujpest vs Puskas Academy

Ujpest

NB I

  • D1-1away to Budapest Honved11 October 2026

Puskas Academy

NB I

  • W1-0away to Gyori ETO FC11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
6Ujpest135352120+118
1Puskas Academy138051815+324

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ujpest vs Puskas Academy

  • 25 April 2026Puskas Academy 2–0 UjpestNB I
  • 31 January 2026Ujpest 0–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
  • 4 October 2025Puskas Academy 0–0 UjpestNB I
  • 9 March 2025Ujpest 1–1 Puskas AcademyNB I
  • 2 November 2024Puskas Academy 1–1 UjpestNB I
  • 28 July 2024Ujpest 1–2 Puskas AcademyNB I

Leading scorers: Ujpest and Puskas Academy

Ujpest

GoalsAssists

  • A. Matko63
  • E. Amenyido45
  • G. Vlijter32

Puskas Academy

GoalsAssists

  • A. Németh52
  • P. Dárdai32

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Puskas Academy won 1–0 at Ujpest. The model had leaned towards a win for Ujpest at 37% and given a win for Puskas Academy 36%. The goal: András Németh 62' for Puskas Academy. Sent off: Lamin Colley (Puskas Academy) 84'. On expected goals it finished 2.15–0.70.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Ujpest a 33.2% chance to finish in the top four: 39.9% after a win, 32.1% after a draw, 25.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 25.3%, 7.9 points lower than before the match.

For Puskas Academy the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 62.2% going in: 70.6% after a win, 61.8% after a draw, 55.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.6%, 8.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Ujpest v Puskas Academy has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 38% / 28% / 34% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 37% / 27% / 36%: the biggest move is Puskas Academy's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Ujpest win37%▼ −1
  2. Draw27%▼ −1
  3. Puskas Academy win36%▲ +2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.