17 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

Samara Arena, Samara
Referee: Igor Kaplenkov, Russia
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Krylia Sovetov 1-2 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Krylia Sovetov, 24% draw, 19% Fakel — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Krylia Sovetov at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Krylia Sovetov0%Draw6%Fakel94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

17'
⚽Clayton Sampaio Pereiraassist: Ilnur Alshin
⚽Martin Kramaričassist: Kirill Pechenin
25'
45+2'
Vyacheslav Yakimov
45'
🔁Vyacheslav Yakimovout: Ravil Netfullin
47'
Albert Gabaraev
🔁Amar Rahmanovićout: Ilzat Akhmetov
60'
🔁Martin Kramaričout: Vitaliy Shitov
60'
Maksim Vityugov
62'
67'
⚽Matvey Bardachevassist: Ilnur Alshin
69'
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Axel Gnapi
69'
🔁Belajdi Pusiout: Maksim Turishchev
🔁Maksim Vityugovout: Mihajlo Banjac
74'
Sergey Bozhin
85'
🔁Nikolay Rasskazovout: Dominik Oroz
86'
🔁Kirill Pecheninout: Kirill Stolbov
86'
87'
🔁Darko Todorovicout: Anton Kovalev
88'
Aleksey Sutormin
90+4'
Ilnur Alshin

Match stats — Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel

64%Possession36%
21Shots12
6On target4
6Corners4
1.8xG0.73

Goals against chances

Krylia Sovetov1 from 1.80 xGless than the chances were worth
Fakel2 from 0.73 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1
  • 80N. KokarevG
  • 15N. RasskazovD
  • 23N. ChernovD
  • 47S. BozhinD
  • 2K. PecheninD
  • 22Fernando CostanzaM
  • 4Y. GorshkovM
  • 14N. SaltykovM
  • 8M. VityugovM
  • 10M. KramaričM
  • 11A. RahmanovićF
Substitutes
  • 39E. FrolovG
  • 72Dani FernándezD
  • 77D. MakarovM
  • 26J. MarínM
  • 18I. LepskiyD
  • 3T. GaldamesD
  • 5D. OrozD
  • 97I. AkhmetovM
  • 7M. BanjacM
Coach: S. Bulatov
Fakel 5-3-2
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 55D. TodorovićD
  • 5A. GabaraevD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 10I. AlshinD
  • 11A. SutorminM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
Substitutes
  • 35V. DorovskikhG
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 22H. El MahasniD
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 17A. KovalevM
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 18K. SimonovM
  • 7M. TurishchevF
Coach: Aleksey Rebko

Form going into Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel

Krylia Sovetov

Premier League

  • D1-1Spartak Moscow10 October 2026

Fakel

Premier League

  • L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Krylia Sovetov144641920-118
16Fakel141310923-146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Krylia Sovetov vs Fakel

  • 24 May 2025Fakel 1–1 Krylia SovetovPremier League
  • 11 August 2024Krylia Sovetov 2–0 FakelPremier League
  • 25 April 2024Fakel Voronezh 0–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
  • 2 September 2023Krylya Sovetov 3–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 28 May 2023Fakel Voronezh 2–1 Krylya SovetovPremier League
  • 27 November 2022Krylya Sovetov 1–0 Fakel VoronezhCup

Leading scorers: Krylia Sovetov and Fakel

Krylia Sovetov

GoalsAssists

  • A. Rahmanović50

Fakel

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Fakel won 2–1 at Krylia Sovetov. The model had leaned towards a win for Krylia Sovetov at 57% and given a win for Fakel 19%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Clayton Sampaio Pereira 17' for Fakel, Martin Kramarič 25' for Krylia Sovetov, Matvey Bardachev 67' for Fakel. On expected goals it finished 1.80–0.73.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Krylia Sovetov a 7.1% chance to finish in the bottom three: 5.2% after a win, 9.2% after a draw, 10.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 10.7%, 3.6 points higher than before the match.

For Fakel the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 93.1% going in: 89.1% after a win, 92.5% after a draw, 94.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 89.1%, 4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Krylia Sovetov v Fakel has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 45% / 29% / 26% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 57% / 24% / 19%: the biggest move is Krylia Sovetov's chance of winning, up 12 points.

  1. Krylia Sovetov win57%▲ +12
  2. Draw24%▼ −5
  3. Fakel win19%▼ −7

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.