17 October 2026, 15:00 UTC

Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

David Petriashvili Stadium, Tbilisi
Full time1 – 3

Final score: Gagra 1-3 Dinamo Batumi.

Before kick-off the model made it 26% Gagra, 28% draw, 46% Dinamo Batumi — fair odds of 3.85, 3.57 and 2.17.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dinamo Batumi at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Gagra0%Draw1%Dinamo Batumi99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

5'
⚽Paulo Vítor
zurab tchavchanidze
42'
44'
⚽Maurides Roque Junior (pen)
🔁Andrey andreychukout: davit mujiri
46'
pedro borges
53'
🔁pedro borgesout: Luka Gurchiani
59'
Luka Gurchiani
60'
60'
🔁Levan Shengeliaout: A. Eshetiye
⚽davit mujiri (pen)
67'
🔁Guram Goshtelianiout: alexander feikrishvili
67'
72'
🔁Maurides Roque Juniorout: Dmitri Mandricenco
72'
🔁Imran Omar Ouladout: Nika Kalandarishvili
Mate Tsintsadze
75'
🔁Vladimir·Arsicout: Illia skrypnyk
76'
🔁Viktor Bliznichenkoout: Givi khachidze
76'
79'
🔁Luka Lakvekhelianiout: Artem Milchenko
83'
⚽Nika Kalandarishvili

Match stats — Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi

49%Possession51%
7Shots9
4On target6
5Corners2

Line-ups

Gagra 4-1-4-1
  • 1O. VorobeyG
  • 40ClaudineiD
  • 14Z. TchavtchanidzeD
  • 2AugustoD
  • 4V. ArsićD
  • 6M. TsintsadzeM
  • 7P. BorgesD
  • 30G. GoshtelianiF
  • 25WandersonM
  • 18V. BliznichenkoF
  • 23A. AndreychukF
Substitutes
  • 22G. SadghobelashviliD
  • 8I. SkrypnykM
  • 17Vinicius CesarD
  • 35Alexander TimchenkoG
  • 33L. GurchianiM
  • 19G. KhachidzeF
  • 9D. MujiriF
  • 5Y. NazarovD
  • 21alexander feikrishviliM
Coach: Ž. Ljubenović
Dinamo Batumi 4-2-3-1
  • 13N. KalichavaG
  • 29I. TuritsovD
  • 23M. KobakhidzeD
  • 24D. CarlsonD
  • 12L. LakvekhelianiD
  • 10U. MaraM
  • 8S. AltunashviliM
  • 27L. ShengeliaF
  • 18I. Oulad OmarM
  • 11Paulo VitorF
  • 9MauridesF
Substitutes
  • 7D. MandrîcencoM
  • 15E. MahmutovićD
  • 1L. KupatadzeG
  • 19N. KalandarishviliD
  • 16A. EshetiyeM
  • 35R. ChiteishviliD
  • 37Giorgi putkaradzeM
  • 6A. MylchenkoM
Coach: Giorgi Chiabrishvili

Form going into Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi

Gagra

Erovnuli Liga

  • L0-3away to Samgurali11 October 2026

Dinamo Batumi

Erovnuli Liga

  • W1-0Dinamo Tbilisi11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Gagra32613132846-1831
1Dinamo Batumi3217875640+1659

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Gagra vs Dinamo Batumi

  • 8 August 2026Dinamo Batumi 2–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 6 May 2026Gagra 1–2 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
  • 7 March 2026Dinamo Batumi 1–1 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 26 October 2025Gagra 4–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga
  • 17 August 2025Dinamo Batumi 1–2 GagraErovnuli Liga
  • 3 May 2025Gagra 1–1 Dinamo BatumiErovnuli Liga

The result against the call

Dinamo Batumi won 3–1 at Gagra. The model had made a win for Dinamo Batumi its most likely outcome, at 46%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Paulo Vítor 5' for Dinamo Batumi, Maurides Roque Junior (penalty) 44' for Dinamo Batumi, davit mujiri (penalty) 67' for Gagra, Nika Kalandarishvili 83' for Dinamo Batumi.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gagra a 90.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 84.4% after a win, 90.8% after a draw, 94.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 94.0%, 3.2 points higher than before the match.

For Dinamo Batumi the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 32.9% going in: 41.1% after a win, 26.9% after a draw, 20.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 41.1%, 8.2 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Gagra v Dinamo Batumi has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 30% / 29% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 26% / 28% / 46%: the biggest move is Dinamo Batumi's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Gagra win26%▼ −4
  2. Draw28%▼ −1
  3. Dinamo Batumi win46%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.