17 October 2026, 11:30 UTC

Samgurali vs Meshakhte Erovnuli Liga prediction & result

26 May Stadium, Tsqaltubo
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Samgurali 2-0 Meshakhte.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% Samgurali, 26% draw, 24% Meshakhte — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Samgurali at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Samgurali99%Draw1%Meshakhte0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Irakli Siradze
5'
35'
Ivan Zotko
vianna vinicius
35'
Omar patarkatsishvili
44'
46'
🔁maksym pyrohovout: Tsotne·Patsatsia
56'
Lasha Ugrekhelidze
59'
Lasha Ugrekhelidze
🔁Irakli Siradzeout: niko tsetskhladze
65'
🔁Irakli Bidzinashviliout: Cebolinha claudio
65'
rodrigues gean
67'
70'
🔁Giorgi Gogolashviliout: saba chkhetiani
70'
🔁Beka Shubitidzeout: Ilia Dgebuadze
70'
🔁Mate Kvirkviaout: Giorgi Gegia
⚽Cebolinha claudio
77'
81'
🔁Erekle jijavadzeout: tarik sikalo
🔁Tornike·Gaprindashviliout: David krasovsky
81'
🔁Levan Gegetchkoriout: gigi gogia
81'
🔁Luqman Gilmoreout: ryan
82'

Match stats — Samgurali vs Meshakhte

53%Possession47%
13Shots11
5On target3
5Corners3

Line-ups

Samgurali 4-1-4-1
  • 21A. SiukaevG
  • 13L. GegetchkoriD
  • 25M. ShatirishviliD
  • 4O. PatarkatsishviliD
  • 27L. ShergelashviliD
  • 10L. GilmoreM
  • 9T. GaprindashviliF
  • 20Vinicius ViannaM
  • 8I. BidzinashviliM
  • 15Gean CarlosF
  • 19I. SiradzeF
Substitutes
  • 26Z. IashviliM
  • 33Isac MartinsM
  • 12A. KasradzeG
  • 11D. KrasovskiF
  • 39RyanD
  • 17N. TsetskhladzeF
  • 22G. GogiaD
  • 28Cláudio CebolinhaF
Coach: G. Oniani
Meshakhte 4-2-3-1
  • 29L. ShovnadzeG
  • 23B. ShubitidzeM
  • 31Eric PimentelD
  • 38I. ZotkoD
  • 40L. UgrekhelidzeD
  • 27G. KantariaM
  • 7E. JijavadzeM
  • 26B. GabiskiriaD
  • 30M. PyrogovM
  • 11M. KvirkviaF
  • 10G. GogolashviliF
Substitutes
  • 19I. DgebuadzeM
  • 16G. GegiaD
  • 20L. KurdadzeD
  • 25R. NovruzovD
  • 6G. PapuashviliM
  • 18T. PatsatsiaM
  • 22T. ŠikaloM
  • 1L. TkeshelashviliG
  • 24S. Chkhetiani

Form going into Samgurali vs Meshakhte

Samgurali

Erovnuli Liga

  • W3-0Gagra11 October 2026

Meshakhte

Erovnuli Liga

  • L1-2FC Iberia 199910 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Erovnuli Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Samgurali32116154357-1439
10Meshakhte32311182553-2820

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Samgurali vs Meshakhte

  • 9 August 2026Meshakhte 1–2 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
  • 1 August 2026Samgurali 1–0 MeshakhteDavid Kipiani Cup
  • 6 May 2026Samgurali 3–1 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga
  • 8 March 2026Meshakhte 0–0 SamguraliErovnuli Liga
  • 19 October 2017Samgurali 5–0 MeshakhteErovnuli Liga 2
  • 11 August 2017Meshakhte 1–1 SamguraliErovnuli Liga 2

The result against the call

Samgurali beat Meshakhte 2–0. The model had made a win for Samgurali its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Irakli Siradze 5' for Samgurali, Cebolinha claudio 77' for Samgurali. Sent off: Lasha Ugrekhelidze (Meshakhte) 59'.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Samgurali a 12.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 7.5% after a win, 15.2% after a draw, 22.2% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 7.5%, 5.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Erovnuli Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Samgurali v Meshakhte has moved

First published on 3 Oct at 44% / 28% / 28% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is Samgurali's chance of winning, up 6 points.

  1. Samgurali win50%▲ +6
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Meshakhte win24%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.