16 October 2026, 22:00 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba Liga Profesional Argentina prediction & result

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Referee: Andres Merlos, Argentina
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Defensa Y Justicia 0-1 Instituto Cordoba.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Defensa Y Justicia, 29% draw, 31% Instituto Cordoba — fair odds of 2.50, 3.45 and 3.23.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Defensa Y Justicia at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Defensa Y Justicia0%Draw4%Instituto Cordoba96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

23'
⚽Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro
Damián Fernández
55'
65'
🔁Matías Tisseraout: Facundo Ezquel Suarez
🔁Valentín Pucheta Lozaout: Ayrton Portillo
70'
🔁Juan Manuel Gutiérrezout: Tiziano Perrotta
71'
73'
🔁Alex Lunaout: Jonas Acevedo
74'
🔁Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaroout: Jhon Córdoba
74'
🔁Hernán De La Fuenteout: Juan Andrés Meli
🔁Maximiliano Porcelout: Aaron Molinas
81'
89'
🔁Gustavo Abregúout: Juan Ignacio Méndez
🔁Demian Leonel Dominguezout: Agustin Hausch
89'
Aaron Molinas
90+1'

Match stats — Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba

67%Possession33%
20Shots7
3On target3
6Corners5
1.71xG0.36

Goals against chances

Defensa Y Justicia0 from 1.71 xGless than the chances were worth
Instituto Cordoba1 from 0.36 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Defensa Y Justicia 4-2-3-1
  • 1M. BorgognoG
  • 28V. LozaD
  • 29D. FernándezD
  • 21D. MartínezD
  • 30D. DomínguezD
  • 22M. PorcelM
  • 8C. PérezM
  • 26J. LuccoM
  • 19D. BarbonaM
  • 24J. GutiérrezM
  • 9L. FernándezF
Substitutes
  • 6E. BurdinD
  • 27D. BlancoM
  • 17A. HauschF
  • 5J. LópezM
  • 45T. MartinezM
  • 10A. MolinasM
  • 20N. PalavecinoM
  • 11Tiziano PerrotaF
  • 16A. PortilloM
Coach: J. Vaccari
Instituto Cordoba 3-4-3
  • 29M. LedesmaG
  • 30J. GalvánD
  • 26L. MosevichD
  • 6F. AlarcónD
  • 2H. De La FuenteM
  • 55G. AbregúM
  • 15M. GallardoM
  • 3D. SosaM
  • 21J. LázaroF
  • 17M. TisseraF
  • 10A. LunaF
Substitutes
  • 8J. AcevedoM
  • 32A. BravoD
  • 20J. CórdobaM
  • 11M. FonsecaF
  • 7N. GuerraF
  • 22A. MassaccesiD
  • 23J. MeliD
  • 13I. MéndezM
  • 19L. SansevieroF
Coach: Diego Flores

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba

Defensa Y Justicia

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026

Instituto Cordoba

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • D2-2Boca Juniors9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Defensa Y Justicia168442115+628
1Instituto Cordoba1610422615+1134

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba

  • 7 April 2026Instituto Cordoba 2–0 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 24 August 2024Instituto Cordoba 4–1 Defensa Y JusticiaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 15 April 2023Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Instituto CordobaLiga Profesional Argentina
  • 7 June 2014Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Instituto CordobaPrimera Nacional
  • 8 December 2013Instituto Cordoba 1–1 Defensa Y JusticiaPrimera Nacional
  • 14 April 2013Instituto Cordoba 1–0 Defensa Y JusticiaPrimera Nacional

The full Defensa Y Justicia vs Instituto Cordoba record →

The result against the call

Instituto Cordoba won 1–0 at Defensa Y Justicia. The model had leaned towards a win for Defensa Y Justicia at 40% and given a win for Instituto Cordoba 31%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Jeremías Ezequiel Lázaro 23' for Instituto Cordoba. On expected goals it finished 1.71–0.36.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Defensa Y Justicia a 22.2% chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A: 39.1% after a win, 12.4% after a draw, 2.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 2.6%, 19.6 points lower than before the match.

For Instituto Cordoba the question was the chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A, 57.2% going in: 86.7% after a win, 62.2% after a draw, 35.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 86.7%, 29.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Defensa Y Justicia v Instituto Cordoba has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 2 updates, it read 40% / 29% / 31%: the biggest move is Defensa Y Justicia's chance of winning, up 3 points.

  1. Defensa Y Justicia win40%▲ +3
  2. Draw29%▼ −1
  3. Instituto Cordoba win31%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.