24 October 2026, 11:00 UTC

Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna First League prediction & result

Gradski stadion, Ruse
Referee: G. Kabakov
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Dunav Ruse 2-0 Spartak Varna.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dunav Ruse, 27% draw, 29% Spartak Varna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunav Ruse at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunav Ruse99%Draw1%Spartak Varna0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Alexander Valiño Navasalassist: Radoslav Apostolov
17'
33'
angel gomes
35'
Sámuel Major
46'
🔁Joao Lopesout: Boubacar Hanne
46'
🔁anton ivanovout: boris ivanov
Alexander Valiño Navasal
60'
🔁jordan louis saintout: Elisee Sou
70'
⚽Radoslav Apostolov
76'
77'
🔁ricardo sousaout: mikhailov tsvetoslav marinov
77'
🔁angel gomesout: Tsvetelin Chunchukov
78'
🔁David Valverdeout: Deyan Lozev
Kristiyan Boychev
79'
🔁Mario dilchovskiout: Stojan Predev
80'
🔁Kristiyan Boychevout: Vladan Vidaković
87'
🔁Alexander Valiño Navasalout: Ibrahim Keita
87'

Match stats — Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna

41%Possession59%
9Shots11
6On target3
5Corners7

Line-ups

Dunav Ruse 4-2-3-1
  • 33G. KitanovG
  • 39Andre AlvesD
  • 88D. TodorovD
  • 51I. BudinovD
  • 4J. CabarcasD
  • 5K. AntoniouD
  • 10K. BoychevM
  • 14R. ApostolovM
  • 17N. FonkeuM
  • 9Álex ValiñoF
  • 23Jordan Layn Saint-LouisM
Substitutes
  • 93B. ChorbadzhiyskiD
  • 2M. DilchovskiD
  • 24S. GavrilovM
  • 18I. KeïtaF
  • 77A. SimeonovF
  • 78Elisee SouM
  • 19S. StefanovM
  • 44V. VidakovićM
  • 6S. YovkovD
Coach: G. Chilikov
Spartak Varna 4-2-3-1
  • 23P. IlievG
  • 44A. GranchovD
  • 76David ValverdeD
  • 5D. KrastevD
  • 29Z. TindanoD
  • 6José Ricardo Gomes SousaM
  • 19S. MajorM
  • 77A. IvanovF
  • 11Boubacar HanneF
  • 90C. OkohF
  • 10J. LopesF
Substitutes
  • 45J. TshitokuD
  • 16Edson SilvaM
  • 14Daniel PavlovM
  • 72Vasco OliveiraD
  • 20D. LozevD
  • 4B. IvanovD
  • 9T. ChunchukovF
  • 7BuaM
  • 1Pedro VictorG
Coach: V. Petrov

Form going into Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna

Dunav Ruse

First League

  • W3-2away to Septemvri Sofia11 October 2026
  • D2-2Botev Vratsa19 September 2026

Spartak Varna

First League

  • W1-0away to Botev Vratsa10 October 2026
  • L0-1Lokomotiv Sofia20 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

First League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunav Ruse143381623-712
7Spartak Varna144461525-1016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna

  • 27 June 2026Spartak Varna 0–0 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs
  • 24 January 2026Dunav Ruse 1–3 Spartak VarnaFriendlies Clubs
  • 30 March 2024Spartak Varna 3–1 Dunav RuseSecond League
  • 17 September 2023Dunav Ruse 0–1 Spartak VarnaSecond League
  • 17 July 2021Spartak Varna 0–4 Dunav RuseFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna

Dunav Ruse

GoalsAssists

  • I. Budinov11
  • Andre Alves10

Spartak Varna

GoalsAssists

  • Georg Stojanovski11
  • J. Tshitoku10

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunav Ruse beat Spartak Varna 2–0. The model had made a win for Dunav Ruse its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Alexander Valiño Navasal 17' for Dunav Ruse, Radoslav Apostolov 76' for Dunav Ruse.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunav Ruse a 39.7% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.8% after a win, 44.0% after a draw, 51.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 29.8%, 9.9 points lower than before the match.

For Spartak Varna the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 19.6% going in: 10.1% after a win, 17.8% after a draw, 24.9% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.9%, 5.3 points higher than before the match.

Read from our First League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna has moved

First published on 10 Oct at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 44% / 27% / 29%: the biggest move is Dunav Ruse's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Dunav Ruse win44%▲ +2
  2. Draw27%=
  3. Spartak Varna win29%▼ −2

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.