Leon vs Toluca Liga MX prediction & result
Final score: Leon 1-1 Toluca.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Leon, 25% draw, 40% Toluca — fair odds of 2.86, 4.00 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
Has the model earned this number?
Toluca at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Leon vs Toluca
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 23Ó. GarcíaG
- 7I. MorenoD
- 14J. RomañaD
- 3Juan José Guevara PossuD
- 5S. VegasD
- 13D. ArcilaM
- 18E. GuerraM
- 20R. EcheverríaM
- 6F. BeltránM
- 11I. DíazM
- 19J. AlvaradoF
- 25P. BellónD
- 203J. LaraM
- 181Irving MartínezG
- 185C. MoraD
- 26S. ReyesM
- 29J. RodríguezM
- 8J. DomínguezM
- 16J. CortizoM
- 4B. ColulaD
- 1H. GonzálezG
- 19S. SimónD
- 4B. MéndezD
- 6F. PereiraD
- 20J. GallardoD
- 5F. RomeroM
- 35É. GutiérrezM
- 11HelinhoM
- 29J. DíazM
- 15P. PérezM
- 16F. ViñasF
- 24F. ArceM
- 8N. CastroM
- 26PaulinhoF
- 13LuanD
- 17B. GarcíaD
- 22L. GarcíaG
- 7V. GuzmánM
- 25E. LópezD
- 9A. VegaF
Form going into Leon vs Toluca
Leon
Liga MX
- W2-0away to Tigres UANL21 October 2026
- L3-5Club America18 October 2026
Toluca
Liga MX
- D2-2Club Tijuana22 October 2026
- D1-1Atletico San Luis18 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 21 | +2 | 23 |
| 4 | Toluca | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 35 | 21 | +14 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Leon vs Toluca
Leon and Toluca have met 7 times in the records we hold, Toluca has won 4 of them to Leon's 0, with 3 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Leon on 24 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| Toluca | 4 | 3 | 0 | 20 | 10 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 30 goals, an average of 4.29 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Oct 2026
Liga MXLeon 1–1 Toluca - 3 Sep 2026
Leagues CupToluca 2–0 Leon - 26 Apr 2026
Liga MXToluca 4–1 Leon - 5 Oct 2025
Liga MXLeon 2–4 Toluca - 9 Feb 2025
Liga MXLeon 3–3 Toluca - 2 Nov 2024
Liga MXToluca 2–2 Leon - 3 Feb 2024
Liga MXToluca 4–1 Leon
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Toluca's attack rates 35% above Leon's, and Toluca concede 13% fewer than Leon. That gives Toluca the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Leon and Toluca
Leon
GoalsAssists
- J. Alvarado61
Toluca
GoalsAssists
- F. Viñas81
- Paulinho50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Leon and Toluca drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for Toluca at 40% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Jose Alvarado 12' for Leon, Federico Viñas 44' for Toluca. On expected goals it finished 1.54–1.43.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Toluca a 89.1% chance to finish in the top eight: 98.3% after a win, 89.5% after a draw, 80.3% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure about where it was, at 89.5%.
Read from our Liga MX season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Leon v Toluca has moved
First published on 10 Oct at 33% / 26% / 41% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 35% / 25% / 40%: the biggest move is Leon's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- Leon win35%▲ +2
- Draw25%▼ −1
- Toluca win40%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.