Corinthians vs Mirassol Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Corinthians 2-0 Mirassol.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Corinthians, 29% draw, 32% Mirassol — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published
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Has the model earned this number?
Corinthians at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Corinthians vs Mirassol
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26Fabrizio AngileriD
- 49André LuizM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 37Kaio CésarM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 21Matheus BiduM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 11VitinhoF
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 19André CarrilloM
- 61DieguinhoM
- 35CharlesM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 55Iago MachadoD
- 4João Pedro TchocaD
- 29AllanM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 80Wallisson LuizM
- 25Neto MouraM
- 95Edson CariocaM
- 33EduardoM
- 77AlessonM
- 30Bruno SantosF
- 44Gabriel KnesowitschD
- 9André LuisF
- 27DenilsonM
- 96Carlos EduardoF
- 10ChicoM
- 90ThomazellaG
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 21José AldoM
Form going into Corinthians vs Mirassol
Corinthians
Serie A
- L2-3away to Vasco da Gama24 October 2026
- D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
Mirassol
Serie A
- D1-1Sao Paulo24 October 2026
- W2-0Internacional16 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 35 | 10 | 11 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Corinthians vs Mirassol
Corinthians and Mirassol have met 7 times in the records we hold, Corinthians has won 5 of them to Mirassol's 2.
The record
Corinthians won the last one 2–0 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 |
| Mirassol | 2 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 19 goals, an average of 2.71 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
Serie ACorinthians 2–0 Mirassol - 3 May 2026
Serie AMirassol 2–1 Corinthians - 5 Oct 2025
Serie ACorinthians 3–0 Mirassol - 10 May 2025
Serie AMirassol 2–1 Corinthians - 2 Mar 2025
Paulista - A1Corinthians 2–0 Mirassol - 19 Feb 2023
Paulista - A1Corinthians 3–0 Mirassol - 11 Feb 2022
Paulista - A1Corinthians 2–1 Mirassol
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Mirassol's attack rates 4% above Corinthians', and Mirassol concede 4% fewer than Corinthians. That gives Mirassol the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Corinthians | 0.76 | 1.14 |
| Mirassol | 0.79 | 1.09 |
The result against the call
Corinthians beat Mirassol 2–0. The model had made a win for Corinthians its most likely outcome, at 39%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: Matheus Bidu 58' for Corinthians, Kaio Cesar 80' for Corinthians. Sent off: Bruno Santos (Mirassol) 24'. On expected goals it finished 2.52–0.03.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Corinthians a 57.7% chance to finish in the bottom four: 40.7% after a win, 64.4% after a draw, 75.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.7%, 17 points lower than before the match.
For Mirassol the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 12.5% going in: 2.9% after a win, 10.1% after a draw, 20.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 20.4%, 7.9 points higher than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.