Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense Serie A prediction & result
Final score: Gremio 2-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Before kick-off the model made it 35% Gremio, 28% draw, 37% Atletico Paranaense — fair odds of 2.86, 3.57 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published
All Brazilian Serie A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Paranaense at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 2Fabián BalbuenaD
- 82WallaceD
- 18João PedroM
- 8Erick NoriegaM
- 20Mathias VillasantiM
- 23MarlonM
- 99José EnamoradoF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9Francis AmuzuF
- 11TetêF
- 22Martin BraithwaiteF
- 17DodiM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 50ZortéaM
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 33Juan Felipe AguirreD
- 37Lucas EsquivelD
- 7Steven MendozaM
- 27Juan PortillaM
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 6Leonardo DerikM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 8João CruzF
- 9Kevin ViverosF
- 29Gastón BenavídezD
- 10Bruno ZapelliM
- 18Kerwin VargasF
- 19Jorge RivaldoF
- 53DuduM
- 23SantosG
- 55Bruno BaldiniD
- 2Gilberto JuniorD
- 25DantasD
Form going into Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
Serie A
- W1-0away to Coritiba26 October 2026
- L2-4Cruzeiro18 October 2026
- D1-1Internacional11 October 2026
Atletico Paranaense
Serie A
- D1-1away to Vitoria24 October 2026
- L0-2Palmeiras17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Chapecoense12 October 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 5 | Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio
Atletico Paranaense and Gremio have met 7 times in the records we hold, Gremio has won 4 of them to Atletico Paranaense's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Gremio won the last one 2–0 on 30 Oct 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
| Gremio | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 |
Between them these 7 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 2.57 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 30 Oct 2026
Serie AGremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense - 2 May 2026
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 0–0 Gremio - 4 Aug 2024
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 0–2 Gremio - 17 Apr 2024
Serie AGremio 2–0 Atletico Paranaense - 18 Oct 2023
Serie AGremio 1–2 Atletico Paranaense - 27 May 2023
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 1–2 Gremio - 26 Sep 2021
Serie AAtletico Paranaense 4–2 Gremio
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Atletico Paranaense's attack rates 26% above Gremio's, and Gremio concede 5% fewer than Atletico Paranaense. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Paranaense | 0.98 | 1.24 |
| Gremio | 0.78 | 1.18 |
Leading scorers: Gremio and Atletico Paranaense
Gremio
GoalsAssists
- Carlos Vinícius111
Atletico Paranaense
GoalsAssists
- K. Viveros213
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Gremio beat Atletico Paranaense 2–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Atletico Paranaense at 37% and given a win for Gremio 35%. The goals: Marlon 39' for Gremio, Fabian Balbuena 52' for Gremio. On expected goals it finished 1.47–1.37.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Gremio a 57.3% chance to finish in the bottom four: 37.7% after a win, 63.3% after a draw, 71.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 37.7%, 19.6 points lower than before the match.
For Atletico Paranaense the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 65.5% going in: 80.8% after a win, 62.9% after a draw, 51.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 51.4%, 14.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Serie A season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.