Chelsea vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 4-3 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Chelsea, 29% draw, 37% Brighton — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 37%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Emiliano MartínezG
- 3Wesley FofanaD
- 5Maxence LacroixD
- 6Levi ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 27Malo GustoM
- 45Roméo LaviaM
- 21Jorrel HatoM
- 10Cole PalmerF
- 17Morgan RogersF
- 9João PedroF
- 34Josh AcheampongD
- 24Reece JamesD
- 25Moisés CaicedoM
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 4Valentín BarcoM
- 39Mike PendersG
- 41EstêvãoF
- 11Jamie GittensF
- 18Danny WelbeckF
- 1Bart VerbruggenG
- 27Mats WiefferD
- 44Luka VuškovićD
- 5Lewis DunkD
- 24Ferdi KadıoğluD
- 13Pascal GroßM
- 21Olivier BoscagliM
- 25Diego GómezM
- 35Malick YalcouyéM
- 29Maxim De CuyperM
- 19Charalampos KostoulasF
- 15Ibrahim OsmanF
- 20CostinhaD
- 12Promise DavidF
- 23Jason SteeleG
- 4Pascal StruijkD
- 6Jaouen HadjamD
- 22Amario Cozier-DuberryM
- 33Matt O'RileyM
- 49Nehemiah OriolaF
Form going into Chelsea vs Brighton
Chelsea
All competitions we cover
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Brighton
All competitions we cover
- W4-0Tromso27 August 2026
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
- D0-0away to Tromso20 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chelsea | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 16 | +3 | 16 |
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Brighton
- 21 April 2026Brighton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 27 September 2025Chelsea 1–3 BrightonPremier League
- 14 February 2025Brighton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 8 February 2025Brighton 2–1 ChelseaFA Cup
- 28 September 2024Chelsea 4–2 BrightonPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Brighton
Chelsea
GoalsAssists
- João Pedro53
- M. Rogers51
- Pedro Neto31
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Chelsea beat Brighton 4–3. The model had leaned towards a win for Brighton at 37% and given a win for Chelsea 34%. The goals: R. Lavia 4' for Chelsea, P. Neto 14' for Chelsea, Joao Pedro 32' for Chelsea, M. Yalcouye 35' for Brighton, Joao Pedro (own goal) 63' for Brighton, C. Palmer 74' for Chelsea, P. Gross 90' for Brighton. On expected goals it finished 2.97–1.56.