Chelsea vs Brighton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Chelsea 4-3 Brighton.
Before kick-off the model made it 34% Chelsea, 29% draw, 37% Brighton — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Brighton at 37% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chelsea vs Brighton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 26Emiliano MartínezG
- 3Wesley FofanaD
- 5Maxence LacroixD
- 6Levi ColwillD
- 7Pedro NetoM
- 27Malo GustoM
- 45Roméo LaviaM
- 21Jorrel HatoM
- 10Cole PalmerF
- 17Morgan RogersF
- 9João PedroF
- 34Josh AcheampongD
- 24Reece JamesD
- 25Moisés CaicedoM
- 29Pep ChavarríaD
- 4Valentín BarcoM
- 39Mike PendersG
- 41EstêvãoF
- 11Jamie GittensF
- 18Danny WelbeckF
- 1Bart VerbruggenG
- 27Mats WiefferD
- 44Luka VuškovićD
- 5Lewis DunkD
- 24Ferdi KadıoğluD
- 13Pascal GroßM
- 21Olivier BoscagliM
- 25Diego GómezM
- 35Malick YalcouyéM
- 29Maxim De CuyperM
- 19Charalampos KostoulasF
- 15Ibrahim OsmanF
- 20CostinhaD
- 12Promise DavidF
- 23Jason SteeleG
- 4Pascal StruijkD
- 6Jaouen HadjamD
- 22Amario Cozier-DuberryM
- 33Matt O'RileyM
- 49Nehemiah OriolaF
Form going into Chelsea vs Brighton
Chelsea
- W3-2away to Fulham24 August 2026
Brighton
- W4-0Aston Villa23 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Chelsea | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 7 |
| 5 | Brighton | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chelsea vs Brighton
- 30 August 2026Chelsea 4–3 BrightonPremier League
- 21 April 2026Brighton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 27 September 2025Chelsea 1–3 BrightonPremier League
- 14 February 2025Brighton 3–0 ChelseaPremier League
- 8 February 2025Brighton 2–1 ChelseaFA Cup
- 28 September 2024Chelsea 4–2 BrightonPremier League
Leading scorers: Chelsea and Brighton
Chelsea
- João Pedro3 goals3 assists
- M. Rogers3 goals1 assists
- C. Palmer2 goals2 assists
Brighton
- M. Yalcouyé2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.