6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Guingamp Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Referee: Pierre Gaillouste
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Dunkerque 3-0 Guingamp.

Before kick-off the model made it 40% Dunkerque, 27% draw, 33% Guingamp — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunkerque at 40%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque99%Draw1%Guingamp0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Jordan Morelassist: Egor Prutsev
17'
59'
Brandon Bokangu
🔁Egor Prutsevout: Souleymane Keita
62'
65'
🔁Dylan Louiserreout: Tanguy Ahile
65'
🔁Tom Ducrocqout: Jasser Chamakh
⚽Souleymane Keitaassist: Gaëtan Robail
66'
🔁Gaëtan Robailout: Arthylio Nade
69'
🔁Steven​ N'Zonziout: Théna Massock
69'
70'
🔁Samir Ben Brahimout: Florent Sanchez Da Silva
70'
🔁Brandon Bokanguout: Amadou Samoura
⚽Khalil Ayariassist: Adrian Lebeau
72'
74'
Albin Demouchy
🔁Khalil Ayariout: Abner
80'
🔁Adrian Lebeauout: M'Baye Niang
80'
82'
🔁Amine Hemiaout: Gauthier Ott

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Guingamp

49%Possession51%
18Shots14
6On target5
6Corners1
1.81xG0.96

Goals against chances

Dunkerque3 from 1.81 xGmore than the chances were worth
Guingamp0 from 0.96 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 73Moha AiramG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26Opa SangantéD
  • 2O. TouréD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 15S. NzonziM
  • 7K. AyariM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. PrutsevM
  • 9G. RobailF
Substitutes
  • 99M. NiangF
  • 16M. PrévotG
  • 21L. LoussilahoD
  • 42M. MakhloufiD
  • 30AbnerM
  • 18Théna MassockM
  • 19S. KeitaM
  • 23A. NadeF
  • 25Franck AtoenM
Coach: Pierre Webó
Guingamp 4-4-2
  • 16Adrián OrtoláG
  • 3J. MatumonaD
  • 7D. GomisD
  • 36A. DemouchyD
  • 5T. OllilaD
  • 11T. AverlantM
  • 4D. LouiserreM
  • 25T. DucrocqM
  • 20S. Ben BrahimM
  • 22B. BokanguF
  • 10A. HemiaF
Substitutes
  • 17A. SamouraF
  • 21T. AhileM
  • 8F. Da SilvaM
  • 23J. ChamakhF
  • 30G. OttF
  • 24J. DiangangaD
  • 1T. BartoucheG
  • 38E. AucanM
Coach: S. Ripoll

Form going into Dunkerque vs Guingamp

Dunkerque

Ligue 2

  • L0-1away to Rodez30 October 2026
  • D1-1Metz23 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Nantes17 October 2026
  • L0-1Annecy9 October 2026

Guingamp

Ligue 2

  • W3-0Saint Etienne31 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Clermont Foot23 October 2026
  • L1-2PAU16 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Nancy9 October 2026

What these results say

  • Dunkerque conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Dunkerque failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Dunkerque had two goals or fewer.
  • Guingamp scored in 3 of these 4 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunkerque124351717015
11Guingamp124261618-214

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Guingamp

  • 6 February 2026Dunkerque 0–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 23 September 2025Guingamp 2–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 14 May 2025Dunkerque 1–0 GuingampLigue 2
  • 7 April 2025Dunkerque 3–1 GuingampLigue 2
  • 4 January 2025Guingamp 1–1 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 13 April 2024Dunkerque 0–1 GuingampLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Guingamp

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Guingamp

GoalsAssists

  • B. Bokangu40

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dunkerque beat Guingamp 3–0. The model had made a win for Dunkerque its most likely outcome, at 40%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Jordan Morel 17' for Dunkerque, Souleymane Keita 66' for Dunkerque, Khalil Ayari 72' for Dunkerque. On expected goals it finished 1.81–0.96.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dunkerque a 10.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 6.8% after a win, 11.1% after a draw, 12.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.8%, 3.6 points lower than before the match.

For Guingamp the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 4.6% going in: 2.2% after a win, 4.4% after a draw, 6.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 6.0%, 1.4 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Dunkerque v Guingamp has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 47% / 26% / 27% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 40% / 27% / 33%: the biggest move is Dunkerque's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Dunkerque win40%▼ −7
  2. Draw27%▲ +1
  3. Guingamp win33%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.