6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle Eredivisie prediction & result

Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Referee: Allard Lindhout
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Willem II 1-1 PEC Zwolle.

Before kick-off the model made it 28% Willem II, 25% draw, 47% PEC Zwolle — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PEC Zwolle at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Willem II4%Draw91%PEC Zwolle5%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

2'
⚽Sydney van Hooijdonk
⚽Hidde ter Avest
3'
🔁Anass Zarroukout: kasper boogaard
45'
🔁Uriël van Aalstout: Jari Schuurman
55'
58'
🔁Gilles Van Der Walout: Elias Sörensen
🔁Tonny Vilhenaout: Eser Gürbüz
67'
Vito van Crooy
69'
74'
🔁Olivier Aertssenout: Jan Burger
74'
🔁Dylan Mbayoout: Thijs Oosting
🔁Vito van Crooyout: Thomas Verheydt
83'
🔁Calvin Twigtout: Mats Lemmens
83'
85'
🔁Younes Namliout: Gabriel Reiziger
85'
🔁Ryan Thomasout: Nick Fichtinger

Match stats — Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

42%Possession58%
13Shots14
5On target2
2Corners7
0.78xG0.82

Goals against chances

Willem II1 from 0.78 xGabout what the chances were worth
PEC Zwolle1 from 0.82 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Willem II 4-2-3-1
  • 26M. DelangheG
  • 5H. ter AvestD
  • 3F. StamD
  • 23M. DekkerD
  • 24N. Tjoe-A-OnD
  • 18Anass ZarroukM
  • 6C. TwigtM
  • 52T. VilhenaM
  • 19Uriel van AalstM
  • 32V. van CrooijM
  • 9D. HaenF
Substitutes
  • 2A. CiranniD
  • 8K. BoogaardM
  • 11A. CulumF
  • 15A. Et-TaïbiD
  • 50E. GürbüzF
  • 83M. LemmensD
  • 17O. MartinF
  • 10J. SchuurmanM
  • 28T. VerheydtF
Coach: J. Streppel
PEC Zwolle 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SchendelaarG
  • 3O. AertssenD
  • 4T. VelthuisD
  • 24N. ViergeverD
  • 33D. van der HaarD
  • 30R. ThomasM
  • 8T. SommerM
  • 37Gilles van der WalM
  • 7Y. NamliM
  • 11D. MbayoM
  • 17S. van HooijdonkF
Substitutes
  • 6Jan BürgerD
  • 42Dylan RuwardD
  • 43Torben BosD
  • 25T. OostingM
  • 9E. SørensenF
  • 22I. CissokoF
  • 34N. FichtingerM
  • 20G. ReizigerM
  • 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
Coach: D. van der Ree

Form going into Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

Willem II

Eredivisie

  • L0-7away to PSV Eindhoven31 October 2026
  • L1-6Cambuur24 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Sparta Rotterdam17 October 2026
  • L1-3away to Utrecht11 October 2026

PEC Zwolle

Eredivisie

  • W1-0ADO Den Haag1 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Utrecht24 October 2026
  • W4-1GO Ahead Eagles18 October 2026
  • L0-1Cambuur11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Willem II did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Willem II conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Willem II had three goals or more.
  • PEC Zwolle scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • PEC Zwolle conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for PEC Zwolle had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Eredivisie table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
18Willem II120391140-293
13PEC Zwolle123361324-1112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

  • 14 May 2025Willem II 1–2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
  • 13 December 2024PEC Zwolle 0–1 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 10 March 2023Willem II 2–3 PEC ZwolleEerste Divisie
  • 9 September 2022PEC Zwolle 2–2 Willem IIEerste Divisie
  • 14 January 2022PEC Zwolle 2–0 Willem IIEredivisie
  • 28 August 2021Willem II 1–0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie

The full Willem II vs PEC Zwolle record →

The result against the call

Willem II and PEC Zwolle drew 1–1. The model had leaned towards a win for PEC Zwolle at 47% and given a draw 25%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Sydney van Hooijdonk 2' for PEC Zwolle, Hidde ter Avest 3' for Willem II. On expected goals it finished 0.78–0.82.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave PEC Zwolle a 34.2% chance to finish in the bottom three: 29.1% after a win, 36.0% after a draw, 41.9% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 36.0%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Eredivisie season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Willem II v PEC Zwolle has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 36% / 26% / 38% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 28% / 25% / 47%: the biggest move is PEC Zwolle's chance of winning, up 9 points.

  1. Willem II win28%▼ −8
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. PEC Zwolle win47%▲ +9

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.