6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Grenoble vs Reims Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade des Alpes, Grenoble
Referee: Retail Pierre
Full time3 – 2

Final score: Grenoble 3-2 Reims.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Grenoble, 26% draw, 51% Reims — fair odds of 4.35, 3.85 and 1.96.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Reims at 51%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Grenoble95%Draw5%Reims0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Mael Corbozassist: Ugo Bonnet
4'
Clement Vidal
41'
45'
⚽Yaya Fofanaassist: Théo Deflorenne
⚽Ugo Bonnetassist: Jean-Guy Akpa Akpro
45+2'
45'
🔁Théo Deflorenneout: John Patrick
50'
Yaya Fofana
64'
🔁seydou dembeleout: Arone Gadou
64'
🔁Jean Mambukuout: Armel Zohouri
66'
N'Tamon Elie
67'
⚽Yaya Fofana
🔁Ugo Bonnetout: Moussa Djitté
71'
🔁Samba Lele Dibaout: Mohamed Bechikh
71'
76'
🔁Sambou Soumanoout: Youssef el Kachati
⚽Mael Corbozassist: Mohamed Bechikh
84'
🔁Baptiste Mouazanout: Yohann Magnin
89'

Match stats — Grenoble vs Reims

28%Possession72%
10Shots16
6On target9
1Corners8
1.33xG1.42

Goals against chances

Grenoble3 from 1.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Reims2 from 1.42 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Grenoble 4-4-2
  • 20A. OllieroG
  • 21Owen KouassiD
  • 3F. LimouriD
  • 5C. VidalD
  • 97Y. MaçonD
  • 92J. Akpa AkproM
  • 14M. CorbozM
  • 8L. BernadouM
  • 10B. MouazanM
  • 30S. DibaF
  • 12U. BonnetF
Substitutes
  • 16B. AllainG
  • 48S. NiakatéD
  • 6Y. MagninM
  • 46J. MoutonD
  • 2M. DjittéF
  • 17L. CerriF
  • 34Zé LeiteF
  • 37M. BechikhF
  • 50A. MedroubD
Coach: O. Frapolli
Reims 4-2-3-1
  • 1T. HülsmannG
  • 21J. MambukuD
  • 28N. AhouononD
  • 22S. KottoD
  • 27D. GuindoD
  • 53T. DeflorenneM
  • 6T. LeoniM
  • 46seydou dembeleM
  • 8Y. FofanaM
  • 9M. DaramyM
  • 99S. SoumanoF
Substitutes
  • 63A. ZohouriD
  • 30J. PatrickM
  • 5John OtomewoD
  • 77Quentin ParisF
  • 19A. GadouF
  • 7T. DiarrassoubaF
  • 10Y. El KachatiF
  • 18Sergio AkiemeD
  • 12E. OmeragicG
Coach: N. Usaï

Form going into Grenoble vs Reims

Grenoble

Ligue 2

  • L1-3Dijon30 October 2026
  • L1-2away to PAU23 October 2026
  • L0-2Boulogne16 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Montpellier9 October 2026

Reims

Ligue 2

  • W2-0Sochaux2 November 2026
  • D1-1away to Boulogne26 October 2026
  • W4-2Dijon16 October 2026
  • D0-0away to Nantes10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Grenoble did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Grenoble conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Reims went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Reims scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • 3 of these 4 matches for Reims had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Grenoble123271322-911
4Reims125612415+921

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Grenoble vs Reims

  • 14 February 2026Grenoble 0–0 ReimsLigue 2
  • 4 October 2025Reims 2–4 GrenobleLigue 2
  • 8 April 2011Grenoble 1–1 ReimsLigue 2
  • 22 October 2010Reims 4–1 GrenobleLigue 2

Leading scorers: Grenoble and Reims

Grenoble

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.

Reims

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Fofana112

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Grenoble beat Reims 3–2. The model had leaned towards a win for Reims at 51% and given a win for Grenoble 23%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Mael Corboz 4' for Grenoble, Yaya Fofana 45' for Reims, Ugo Bonnet 45+2' for Grenoble, Yaya Fofana 67' for Reims, Mael Corboz 84' for Grenoble. On expected goals it finished 1.33–1.42.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Grenoble a 54.4% chance to finish in the bottom three: 43.9% after a win, 54.8% after a draw, 58.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 43.9%, 10.5 points lower than before the match.

For Reims the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 42.5% going in: 46.6% after a win, 39.2% after a draw, 34.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.5%, 8 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Grenoble v Reims has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 25% / 28% / 47% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 23% / 26% / 51%: the biggest move is Reims's chance of winning, up 4 points.

  1. Grenoble win23%▼ −2
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Reims win51%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.