6 November 2026, 19:00 UTC

Montpellier vs Metz Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier
Referee: Eddy Rosier
Full time2 – 3

Final score: Montpellier 2-3 Metz.

Before kick-off the model made it 56% Montpellier, 26% draw, 18% Metz — fair odds of 1.79, 3.85 and 5.56.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Montpellier at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

21'
Jessy Deminguet
26'
⚽Bouna Sarr
Daylam Meddah
31'
43'
⚽Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou (OG)
⚽Daylam Meddahassist: Naoufel El Hannach
50'
51'
⚽Jessy Deminguetassist: Pape Moussa Fall
60'
Idris Mohamed
🔁Naoufel El Hannachout: Théo Chennahi
62'
🔁Laciné Megnan-Pavéout: Nordan Mukiele
62'
🔁Daryll Benlahlouout: Noah Vidal
62'
🔁Daylam Meddahout: Hichem Abderrebi
66'
80'
🔁Jessy Deminguetout: Believe Munongo
80'
🔁Jahyann Pandoreout: Nathan Mbala
⚽Mamadou Camara
90'
90+1'
🔁Idris Mohamedout: Jean Ruiz
90+2'
🔁Teji Savanierout: Bryan Song

Match stats — Montpellier vs Metz

64%Possession36%
23Shots6
5On target2
9Corners4
1.99xG0.84

Goals against chances

Montpellier2 from 1.99 xGabout what the chances were worth
Metz3 from 0.84 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 3Naoufel El HannachD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 28Y. ZouaouiD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 27D. MeddahM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 23Daryll BenlahlouM
  • 9Lacine Megnan-PaveM
  • 11M. CamaraF
Substitutes
  • 44T. ChennahiM
  • 10Y. BenhattabM
  • 90Gregory AyemM
  • 32Hichem AbderrebiM
  • 36Massaoly DiarraF
  • 1M. MichelG
  • 19N. MukieleF
  • 77EversonM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
Coach: Z. Camara
Metz 5-4-1
  • 1J. FischerG
  • 70B. SarrD
  • 2M. ColinD
  • 42C. DevenishD
  • 4U. MboulaD
  • 3F. MiguelD
  • 8J. DeminguetM
  • 98I. MohamedM
  • 10T. SavanierM
  • 21J. PandoreM
  • 11P. FallF
Substitutes
  • 61P. SyG
  • 88A. Agne BaF
  • 19M. Bokele MputuF
  • 22N. MbalaF
  • 33Abdourahmane MbodjF
  • 18B. MunongoM
  • 5J. RuizD
  • 7Ibou SanéF
  • 39B. SongD
Coach: Grégory Proment

Form going into Montpellier vs Metz

Montpellier

Ligue 2

  • W3-0away to Annecy31 October 2026
  • W2-1RED Star FC 9326 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Rodez19 October 2026
  • W2-0Grenoble9 October 2026

Metz

Ligue 2

  • L1-3PAU30 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Dunkerque23 October 2026
  • W3-2Sochaux17 October 2026
  • L2-4away to Dijon12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Montpellier won every one of these 4 matches.
  • Montpellier scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Montpellier kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Metz scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Metz conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Metz.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Montpellier12732189+924
7Metz124532019+117

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Montpellier vs Metz

  • 11 January 2026Metz 0–4 MontpellierCoupe de France
  • 18 February 2024Montpellier 3–0 MetzLigue 1
  • 17 December 2023Metz 0–1 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 1 May 2022Montpellier 2–2 MetzLigue 1
  • 1 December 2021Metz 1–3 MontpellierLigue 1
  • 31 July 2021Metz 1–0 MontpellierFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Montpellier and Metz

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Metz

GoalsAssists

  • P. Fall81
  • J. Deminguet33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Metz won 3–2 at Montpellier. The model had leaned towards a win for Montpellier at 56% and given a win for Metz 18%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 6 matches like this one. The goals: Bouna Sarr 26' for Metz, Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou (own goal) 43' for Metz, Daylam Meddah 50' for Montpellier, Jessy Deminguet 51' for Metz, Mamadou Camara 90' for Montpellier. On expected goals it finished 1.99–0.84.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Montpellier a 65.5% chance to finish in the top two: 69.6% after a win, 61.8% after a draw, 57.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 57.4%, 8.1 points lower than before the match.

For Metz the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 8.7% going in: 5.3% after a win, 7.1% after a draw, 10.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 5.3%, 3.4 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Ligue 2 season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Montpellier v Metz has moved

First published on 23 Oct at 49% / 28% / 23% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 56% / 26% / 18%: the biggest move is Montpellier's chance of winning, up 7 points.

  1. Montpellier win56%▲ +7
  2. Draw26%▼ −2
  3. Metz win18%▼ −5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.