21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Montpellier Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Dunkerque 0-1 Montpellier.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dunkerque, 16% draw, 40% Montpellier — fair odds of 2.27, 6.25 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Dunkerque at 44% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque0%Draw9%Montpellier91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Yael Mouanga
🔁V. Mayelaout: L. Vallier
46'
🔁E. Prutsevout: S. Keita
46'
54'
⚽N. Pays
58'
🔁N. Vidal-Cartouxout: D. Benlahlou
Alex Daho
60'
🔁A. Dahoout: M. Decherf
63'
🔁T. Massockout: K. Ayari
64'
69'
🔁N. Mukieleout: Y. Issoufou
🔁J. Morelout: E. Mayilla
78'
Khalil Ayari
90+5'
Souleymane Keita
90+3'
90+3'
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Montpellier

58%Possession42%
12Shots11
3On target5
5Corners7

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. PrevotG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26O. SanganteD
  • 4B. LagaeD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18T. MassockM
  • 93A. DahoM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. Prutsev
  • 9T. RobinetF
Substitutes
  • 73MohaG
  • 24L. VallierD
  • 2O. ToureD
  • 21L. Dziki LoussilahoD
  • 19S. KeitaM
  • 25F. AtoenM
  • 29M. DecherfM
  • 7K. AyariF
  • 94E. MayillaF
Coach: Albert Sanchez
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 29E. TchatoD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 32H. AbderrebiM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 19N. MukieleM
  • 9L. Megnan-PaveF
Substitutes
  • 50V. DzodicG
  • 3N. El HannachD
  • 35M. ChambonD
  • 90G. AyemM
  • 77Everson JrM
  • 7Y. IssoufouF
  • 23D. BenlahlouF
Coach: Zoumana Camara

Form going into Dunkerque vs Montpellier

Dunkerque

  • D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026

Montpellier

  • W1-0away to Nancy14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Dunkerque6222101008
3Montpellier632154+111

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Montpellier

  • 5 January 2026Montpellier 1–3 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 18 October 2025Dunkerque 0–1 MontpellierLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Montpellier

Dunkerque

  • E. Prutsev2 goals1 assists
  • S. Keita2 goals1 assists

Montpellier

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.