21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAU vs Nancy Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Full time0 – 1

Final score: PAU 0-1 Nancy.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% PAU, 26% draw, 35% Nancy — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts PAU at 39% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1767 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU0%Draw4%Nancy96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gaëtan Paquiez
14'
Axel Dodote
18'
43'
Nehemiah Fernandez
🔁L. Gadegbekuout: C. Fall
46'
🔁B. Leyeout: R. Openda
46'
Axel Bamba
54'
🔁L. Rajotout: T. Saettel
61'
61'
🔁N. Obougouout: B. Bokangu
68'
🔁N. Fernandezout: H. Tavares
68'
🔁N. Kandilout: M. Fofana
🔁G. Versiniout: A. Lefebvre
73'
86'
🔁W. Bouabdelliout: C. El Hansar
86'
🔁Z. Fdaouchout: Z. Ztouti
87'
⚽B. Bokanguassist: I. Housni
88'
Héliohdino Tavares
🔁J. Benetout: A. Briancon
89'

Match stats — PAU vs Nancy

46%Possession54%
15Shots8
1On target3
5Corners4

Line-ups

PAU 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 10G. VersiniM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliM
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 23A. BrianconD
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 22R. Mimb BahengD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 14R. Openda
Coach: Thierry Debes
Nancy 4-4-2
  • 1E. BasilioG
  • 4N. FernandezD
  • 77Y. NahounouD
  • 21E. MendyD
  • 44E. TacafredD
  • 70N. KandilM
  • 6K. KebeM
  • 8W. BouabdelliM
  • 7Z. FdaouchM
  • 9I. HousniF
  • 29N. ObougouF
Substitutes
  • 30G. LembetG
  • 14N. Saint-RufD
  • 2H. TavaresD
  • 17M. FofanaM
  • 45C. El HansarM
  • 11S. CisseF
  • 10A. DabasseF
  • 20B. BokanguM
  • 26Z. ZtoutiF
Coach: Oswald Tanchot

Form going into PAU vs Nancy

PAU

  • W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026

Nancy

  • L0-1Montpellier14 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15PAU612346-25
10Nancy62134407

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Nancy

  • 2 May 2026PAU 1–3 NancyLigue 2
  • 29 August 2025Nancy 2–2 PAULigue 2
  • 14 May 2022Nancy 2–3 PAULigue 2
  • 24 July 2021PAU 2–1 NancyLigue 2
  • 5 February 2021Nancy 1–0 PAULigue 2
  • 3 October 2020PAU 1–1 NancyLigue 2

Leading scorers: PAU and Nancy

PAU

  • B. Leye3 goals

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.