Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Dynamo Dresden 3-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dynamo Dresden, 25% draw, 31% SpVgg Greuther Fürth — fair odds of 2.27, 4.00 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Dynamo Dresden at 44%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 22L. GrillG
- 32J. SternerD
- 6N. RappD
- 17A. MuhamedbegovićD
- 44S. StraudiD
- 18R. WagnerM
- 21T. RaschlM
- 24P. ČovićM
- 27N. HauptmannM
- 20B. BobzienM
- 9V. VermeijF
- 29L. BoederD
- 33C. DafernerF
- 16N. FrölingF
- 11K. InanogluF
- 10J. LemmerM
- 34T. NeiningerD
- 7K. OkpalaF
- 19A. RossipalD
- 1T. SchreiberG
- 1Florian HellsternG
- 23J. DehmD
- 22J. HeuerD
- 34Hendry Aron BlankD
- 27G. ItterD
- 6S. BanséM
- 13P. WillM
- 30F. KlausM
- 8S. AppelkampM
- 10Ole PohlmannM
- 42O. SillahF
- 2Lukas ReichD
- 7D. SrbenyF
- 43Silas Joel PrüfrockG
- 29K. KeresztesD
- 11A. KellerM
- 45Olgherto BalliuM
- 28D. ArifiM
- 37F. AdemiM
- 19B. ZankF
Form going into Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden
2. Bundesliga
- L1-2away to Hannover 961 November 2026
- L0-3away to Holstein Kiel25 October 2026
- W2-01. FC Magdeburg18 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Osnabrück10 October 2026
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2. Bundesliga
- W1-0Holstein Kiel1 November 2026
- L0-3away to VfL Osnabrück25 October 2026
- W2-0Eintracht Braunschweig17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Hertha BSC11 October 2026
What these results say
- Dynamo Dresden failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dynamo Dresden conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Dynamo Dresden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dynamo Dresden vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
- 17 January 2026Dynamo Dresden 2–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 3 August 2025SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–2 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 9 June 2020Dynamo Dresden 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
- 18 October 2019SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 4 April 2019SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–0 Dynamo Dresden2. Bundesliga
- 30 September 2018Dynamo Dresden 0–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Dynamo Dresden and SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Dynamo Dresden
No player in 2. Bundesliga's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
GoalsAssists
- F. Klaus71
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Dynamo Dresden beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3–0. The model had made a win for Dynamo Dresden its most likely outcome, at 44%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Robert Wagner 31' for Dynamo Dresden, Ben Bobzien 41' for Dynamo Dresden, Vincent Vermeij 55' for Dynamo Dresden. Sent off: Hendry. Blank (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) 62'. On expected goals it finished 1.92–1.22.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dynamo Dresden a 22.2% chance to finish in the bottom two: 17.1% after a win, 22.3% after a draw, 28.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 17.1%, 5.1 points lower than before the match.
For SpVgg Greuther Fürth the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 10.2% going in: 6.3% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 12.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.3%, 2.1 points higher than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.