Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Holstein Kiel 1-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Holstein Kiel, 28% draw, 34% Arminia Bielefeld — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
Holstein Kiel at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1T. WeinerG
- 32H. SekineD
- 5N. MadsenD
- 4S. SchonlauD
- 40Leon ParduziD
- 8G. BalziM
- 28J. MeffertM
- 15K. DavidsenM
- 11G. de RegtF
- 19P. HarresF
- 10J. TherkelsenF
- 17F. AlidouF
- 20A. KaprálikF
- 16A. KelatiM
- 9G. KvilitaiaF
- 13I. NekićD
- 41Lio RothenhagenG
- 7S. SkrzybskiF
- 3Niko Takahashi CendagortaD
- 27I. UgohM
- 1J. KerskenG
- 5M. BauerD
- 21S. RussoD
- 19M. GroßerD
- 7H. KoudossouM
- 31L. JensenM
- 38M. WörlM
- 17A. SickerM
- 14M. MomuluhM
- 10J. RocheltM
- 11J. GrodowskiF
- 30I. YoungF
- 42T. WegenerM
- 8S. SchreckM
- 23L. SchneiderD
- 18L. OppermannG
- 6M. MehlemM
- 29T. HandwerkerD
- 2F. HagmannD
- 27Benjamin Bediako BoakyeF
Form going into Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel
2. Bundesliga
- L0-1away to SpVgg Greuther Fürth1 November 2026
- W3-0Dynamo Dresden25 October 2026
- D0-0Hertha BSC16 October 2026
- L0-1away to Eintracht Braunschweig9 October 2026
Arminia Bielefeld
2. Bundesliga
- W3-1Eintracht Braunschweig30 October 2026
- L0-1away to Hertha BSC24 October 2026
- W2-1VfL Osnabrück18 October 2026
- W1-0away to VfL Bochum11 October 2026
What these results say
- Holstein Kiel failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Holstein Kiel failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Holstein Kiel had two goals or fewer.
- Arminia Bielefeld won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Holstein Kiel | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Arminia Bielefeld | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Holstein Kiel vs Arminia Bielefeld
- 23 January 2026Arminia Bielefeld 2–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
- 10 August 2025Holstein Kiel 0–2 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 2 April 2023Holstein Kiel 2–3 Arminia Bielefeld2. Bundesliga
- 14 January 2023Arminia Bielefeld 2–1 Holstein KielFriendlies Clubs
- 17 September 2022Arminia Bielefeld 4–2 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
Leading scorers: Holstein Kiel and Arminia Bielefeld
Holstein Kiel
GoalsAssists
- P. Harres53
Arminia Bielefeld
GoalsAssists
- J. Grodowski72
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Arminia Bielefeld won 2–1 at Holstein Kiel. The model had leaned towards a win for Holstein Kiel at 38% and given a win for Arminia Bielefeld 34%. The goals: Hiroki Sekine (own goal) 14' for Arminia Bielefeld, Hiroki Sekine 76' for Holstein Kiel, Isaiah Young 80' for Arminia Bielefeld. On expected goals it finished 1.09–1.92.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Holstein Kiel a 15.4% chance to finish in the bottom two: 11.1% after a win, 16.1% after a draw, 19.5% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 19.5%, 4.1 points higher than before the match.
For Arminia Bielefeld the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 3.3% going in: 1.2% after a win, 3.1% after a draw, 4.3% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 1.2%, 2.1 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.