AVS vs Vizela Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: AVS 2-2 Vizela.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% AVS, 28% draw, 25% Vizela — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
AVS at 47%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — AVS vs Vizela
Line-ups
- 1Dani RebolloG
- 97Matheus PivôD
- 6Carlos PonckD
- 26Bernardo CondeD
- 28André SousaD
- 70RoniM
- 78AndreyM
- 80Hiago SantosM
- 20Ruan AssisF
- 9Rodrigo PinhoF
- 7Guilherme NeivaF
- 30Talles WanderF
- 3L. RosićD
- 4Davi SchuindtD
- 12L. RivasD
- 22Diogo BrasidoD
- 49P. PimentelM
- 88F. AlmeidaD
- 8Jorge MeirelesF
- 17R. N'doF
- 1Antonio GomisG
- 26L. MinaD
- 6Giovani BambaM
- 55A. HristovD
- 20B. GodwinD
- 95A. TraoréM
- 31NetoM
- 23Y. FortunéF
- 24H. MörschelM
- 36M. LacavaF
- 9Manu GarridoF
- 96A. AdamuF
- 19A. VulićG
- 13Luís RochaD
- 77JójóD
- 8A. BastunovM
- 11N. ThioF
- 16Miguel PiresM
- 17Miguel TavaresF
- 22Lucas AntañónF
Form going into AVS vs Vizela
AVS
Segunda Liga
- L1-2away to União de Leiria31 October 2026
- W2-1Tondela25 October 2026
- W2-1away to Penafiel9 October 2026
- D0-0Farense13 September 2026
Vizela
Segunda Liga
- W2-1Academica1 November 2026
- L1-2away to Chaves23 October 2026
- L0-2Sporting CP B10 October 2026
- D2-2away to FC Porto B14 September 2026
What these results say
- AVS scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- AVS conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for AVS had three goals or more.
- Vizela conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Vizela failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Vizela scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AVS | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Vizela | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: AVS vs Vizela
- 1 June 2025Vizela 2–2 AVSPrimeira Liga
- 24 May 2025AVS 3–0 VizelaPrimeira Liga
- 28 July 2023AVS 1–0 VizelaTaça da Liga
The result against the call
AVS and Vizela drew 2–2. The model had leaned towards a win for AVS at 47% and given a draw 28%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 4 matches like this one. The goals: Manuel Garrido 3' for Vizela, Yassin Fortune 30' for Vizela, André Sousa 67' for AVS, Guilherme Neiva 84' for AVS. Sent off: Aliou Badara Traore (Vizela) 76'.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave AVS a 9.3% chance to finish in the top three: 11.3% after a win, 7.8% after a draw, 5.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 7.8%, 1.5 points lower than before the match.
For Vizela the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 7.2% going in: 4.1% after a win, 6.6% after a draw, 8.7% after a defeat. The draw was the middle one of the three, and left the figure at 6.6%, 0.6 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Segunda Liga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.