Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg 2. Bundesliga prediction & result
Final score: Hertha BSC 2-1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Before kick-off the model made it 46% Hertha BSC, 23% draw, 31% VfL Wolfsburg — fair odds of 2.17, 4.35 and 3.23.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All 2. Bundesliga predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Hertha BSC at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 35M. GersbeckG
- 42D. ZeefuikD
- 44L. GechterD
- 27N. KolbeD
- 22M. PedersenD
- 30P. SeguinM
- 8K. SessaM
- 19O. AdewumiM
- 23J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 7J. BrekaloM
- 17S. GrønningF
- 41P. KlemensD
- 9G. NilssonF
- 18L. SchulerF
- 47Selim TelibM
- 20Farid Alfa-RuprechtF
- 2J. EitschbergerD
- 43T. GollerG
- 33S. GouramM
- 13Konstantin HeideG
- 1T. WellenreutherG
- 26S. KumbediD
- 6H. WahlD
- 33CleitonD
- 21J. MæhleD
- 27M. ArnoldM
- 20M. DamarM
- 5Vinicius SouzaM
- 17A. BernhardssonF
- 19R. GlatzelF
- 11F. ReeseF
- 8Bence DárdaiM
- 2K. FischerD
- 31Y. GerhardtM
- 10F. HornbyF
- 37E. RexhbeçajM
- 7K. ShiogaiF
- 30J. ZielińskiG
- 22M. AngelyD
- 23A. BesioF
Form going into Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC
2. Bundesliga
- W3-0away to 1. FC Kaiserslautern31 October 2026
- W1-0Arminia Bielefeld24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Holstein Kiel16 October 2026
- W2-1SpVgg Greuther Fürth11 October 2026
VfL Wolfsburg
2. Bundesliga
- W2-0VfL Osnabrück31 October 2026
- D1-1away to VfL Bochum23 October 2026
- W3-11. FC Heidenheim17 October 2026
- D4-4away to 1. FC Nürnberg10 October 2026
What these results say
- Hertha BSC went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Hertha BSC won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hertha BSC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- VfL Wolfsburg conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
2. Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hertha BSC | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 31 |
| 5 | VfL Wolfsburg | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 16 | +10 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hertha BSC vs VfL Wolfsburg
- 8 October 2025VfL Wolfsburg 0–2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs
- 27 May 2023VfL Wolfsburg 1–2 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
- 24 January 2023Hertha Berlin 0–5 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 15 January 2022VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
- 21 August 2021Hertha Berlin 1–2 VfL WolfsburgBundesliga
- 27 February 2021VfL Wolfsburg 2–0 Hertha BerlinBundesliga
Leading scorers: Hertha BSC and VfL Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC
GoalsAssists
- J. Brekalo55
- O. Adewumi50
- S. Grønning41
VfL Wolfsburg
GoalsAssists
- F. Reese57
- R. Glatzel51
- A. Bernhardsson43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Hertha BSC beat VfL Wolfsburg 2–1. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Hertha BSC at 46%. The goals: Oluwaseun Adewumi 43' for Hertha BSC, Deyovaisio Zeefuik 45+2' for Hertha BSC, Kento Shiogai 47' for VfL Wolfsburg. Sent off: Cleiton Santana dos Santos (VfL Wolfsburg) 22'. On expected goals it finished 1.39–0.90.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Hertha BSC a 60.2% chance to finish top of the regular season: 66.6% after a win, 59.5% after a draw, 52.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 66.6%, 6.4 points higher than before the match.
For VfL Wolfsburg the question was the chance to finish in the top two, 45.5% going in: 53.1% after a win, 45.7% after a draw, 40.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 40.2%, 5.3 points lower than before the match.
Read from our 2. Bundesliga season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Hertha BSC v VfL Wolfsburg has moved
First published on 24 Oct at 42% / 23% / 35% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 46% / 23% / 31%: the biggest move is Hertha BSC's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Hertha BSC win46%▲ +4
- Draw23%=
- VfL Wolfsburg win31%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.