31 October 2026, 14:30 UTC

Dynamo vs Akhmat Premier League prediction & result

VTB Arena, Moscow
Referee: Sergey Karasev
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Dynamo 2-0 Akhmat.

Before kick-off the model made it 57% Dynamo, 24% draw, 19% Akhmat — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dynamo at 57%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dynamo99%Draw1%Akhmat0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Daniil Fomin
2'
22'
Kalidou Sidibe
56'
🔁Turpal-Ali Ibishevout: Kirill Shchetinin
🔁Arthur Gomesout: Maximiliano Gutierrez
63'
🔁Yaroslav Gladyshevout: Josue Casimir
63'
65'
🔁Mohamed Konateout: Georgiy Melkadze
76'
🔁Maksim Samorodovout: Erald maksuti
⚽Konstantin Tyukavinassist: Daniil Fomin
77'
82'
Kirill Shchetinin
🔁Konstantin Tyukavinout: Ivan Sergeev
85'
🔁David Ricardo Loiola da Silvaout: Maksim Osipenko
85'
90'
Lechi Sadulaev
🔁Bitelloout: Anton Miranchuk
90+1'

Match stats — Dynamo vs Akhmat

62%Possession38%
22Shots9
12On target1
3Corners4
2.54xG0.64

Goals against chances

Dynamo2 from 2.54 xGless than the chances were worth
Akhmat0 from 0.64 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Dynamo 4-2-3-1
  • 1K. RasulovG
  • 4J. CáceresD
  • 6R. FernándezD
  • 57David RicardoD
  • 8RubensD
  • 15D. GlebovM
  • 74D. FominM
  • 91Y. GladyshevM
  • 10BitelloM
  • 11Arthur GomesM
  • 70K. TyukavinF
Substitutes
  • 56L. ZaydenzalD
  • 77J. CasimirF
  • 28M. GutiérrezF
  • 31I. LeshchukG
  • 60T. MarinkinM
  • 21A. MiranchukM
  • 88V. OkishorM
  • 55M. OsipenkoD
  • 33I. SergeevF
Coach: S. Schwarz
Akhmat 4-2-3-1
  • 1V. UlyanovG
  • 95A. AdamovD
  • 6K. SidibéD
  • 5K. CakeD
  • 81M. SidorovD
  • 11Ismael Silva LimaM
  • 4T. IbishevM
  • 20M. SamorodovM
  • 17Egas CacinturaM
  • 7L. SadulaevM
  • 13M. KonatéF
Substitutes
  • 10K. ShchetininM
  • 71R. MitsaevG
  • 77G. MelkadzeF
  • 76E. MaksutiF
  • 54K. KistenevD
  • 97A. KasadzhikovF
  • 70A. GadzhievM
  • 87A. R. ElberdovM
  • 8M. BogosavacD
Coach: S. Cherchesov

Form going into Dynamo vs Akhmat

Dynamo

Premier League

  • L1-3away to Akron24 October 2026
  • W3-1CSKA Moscow18 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Rubin11 October 2026

Akhmat

Premier League

  • L0-1FC Orenburg23 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Zenit18 October 2026
  • D0-0Baltika11 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Dynamo1410132313+1031
12Akhmat143561619-314

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dynamo vs Akhmat

  • 14 October 2026Akhmat 1–2 DynamoCup
  • 3 September 2026Dynamo 3–0 AkhmatCup
  • 30 November 2025Akhmat 2–1 DynamoPremier League
  • 19 October 2025Dynamo 2–2 AkhmatPremier League
  • 8 July 2025Dynamo 1–1 AkhmatFriendlies Clubs
  • 2 December 2024Akhmat 1–1 DynamoPremier League

Leading scorers: Dynamo and Akhmat

Dynamo

GoalsAssists

  • K. Tyukavin71
  • V. Okishor32

Akhmat

GoalsAssists

  • L. Sadulaev33

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Dynamo beat Akhmat 2–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Dynamo at 57%. The goals: Daniil Fomin 2' for Dynamo, Konstantin Tyukavin 77' for Dynamo. On expected goals it finished 2.54–0.64.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Dynamo a 23.4% chance to finish top of the regular season: 26.0% after a win, 18.6% after a draw, 16.0% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 26.0%, 2.6 points higher than before the match.

For Akhmat the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 33.5% going in: 20.8% after a win, 32.1% after a draw, 36.3% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 36.3%, 2.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.