31 October 2026, 12:15 UTC

Rubin vs Fakel Premier League prediction & result

Ak Bars Arena, Kazan
Referee: Danil Kashirin
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Rubin 1-0 Fakel.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Rubin, 29% draw, 22% Fakel — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Rubin at 49%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rubin98%Draw2%Fakel0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

11'
Ilnur Alshin
25'
Aleksandr Koksharov
Ugochukwu Iwu
35'
⚽Eddie Salcedo
38'
Ilya Samoshnikov
57'
🔁Ugochukwu Iwuout: Bogdan Jočić
58'
🔁Ulvi Babaevout: Nazmi Gripshi
58'
61'
🔁Aleksandr Koksharovout: Axel Gnapi
61'
🔁Belajdi Pusiout: Maksim Turishchev
🔁Ilya Samoshnikovout: Ilya Rozhkov
67'
🔁Eddie Salcedoout: Daniil Motorin
67'
69'
🔁Vyacheslav Yakimovout: Ravil Netfullin
69'
🔁Ilnur Alshinout: Hodaifa El Mhassani
Ignacio Saavedra
70'
78'
🔁Butta Magomedovout: Nikolay Giorgobiani
Ilya Rozhkov
87'
87'
Matvey Bardachev
🔁Ignacio Saavedraout: Denil Maldonado
90+3'

Match stats — Rubin vs Fakel

43%Possession57%
9Shots8
3On target2
2Corners4
0.97xG0.56

Goals against chances

Rubin1 from 0.97 xGabout what the chances were worth
Fakel0 from 0.56 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rubin 5-3-2
  • 38E. StaverG
  • 12A. ArroyoD
  • 98N. LobovD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 2E. TeslenkoD
  • 71I. SamoshnikovD
  • 22V. HodžaM
  • 6U. IwuM
  • 14I. SaavedraM
  • 10E. SalcedoF
  • 7U. BabaevF
Substitutes
  • 23R. BezrukovD
  • 11N. GripshiM
  • 27A. GritsaenkoD
  • 8B. JočićM
  • 70D. KabutovD
  • 3D. MaldonadoD
  • 59D. N. MotorinF
  • 25A. NigmatullinG
  • 51I. RozhkovD
Coach: Oleg Kuzmin
Fakel 5-3-2
  • 96I. ObukhovG
  • 17A. KovalevD
  • 20I. YurganovD
  • 40ClaytonD
  • 53M. BardachevD
  • 10I. AlshinD
  • 97B. MagomedovM
  • 23V. YakimovM
  • 8A. BagamaevM
  • 19B. PusiF
  • 90A. KoksharovF
Substitutes
  • 44Y. ZhuravlevD
  • 7M. TurishchevF
  • 18K. SimonovM
  • 52R. NetfullinM
  • 27S. MagkeevD
  • 9A. Gnapi DableF
  • 99N. GiorgobianiM
  • 1D. FrolkinG
  • 22H. El MahasniD
Coach: Aleksey Rebko

Form going into Rubin vs Fakel

Rubin

Premier League

  • L0-2Krylia Sovetov24 October 2026
  • L0-4away to Spartak Moscow18 October 2026
  • L0-1Dynamo11 October 2026

Fakel

Premier League

  • L0-1Rodina Moskva24 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Krylia Sovetov17 October 2026
  • L0-5Lokomotiv10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Rubin144641418-418
16Fakel141310923-146

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rubin vs Fakel

  • 27 April 2025Rubin 2–1 FakelPremier League
  • 1 October 2024Rubin 0–1 FakelCup
  • 27 September 2024Fakel 0–0 RubinPremier League
  • 27 August 2024Fakel 0–2 RubinCup
  • 26 November 2023Rubin 1–0 Fakel VoronezhPremier League
  • 25 September 2023Fakel Voronezh 0–1 RubinPremier League

The result against the call

Rubin beat Fakel 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Rubin at 49%. The goal: Eddie Salcedo 38' for Rubin. On expected goals it finished 0.97–0.56.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rubin a 38.4% chance to finish in the bottom four: 32.9% after a win, 43.6% after a draw, 47.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.9%, 5.5 points lower than before the match.

For Fakel the question was the chance to finish in the bottom four, 95.8% going in: 93.4% after a win, 95.6% after a draw, 97.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 97.6%, 1.8 points higher than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rubin v Fakel has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 56% / 27% / 17% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 49% / 29% / 22%: the biggest move is Rubin's chance of winning, down 7 points.

  1. Rubin win49%▼ −7
  2. Draw29%▲ +2
  3. Fakel win22%▲ +5

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.