31 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar Premier League prediction & result

Arena Khimki, Khimki
Referee: Rafael Shafeev
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Rodina Moskva 2-1 FC Krasnodar.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% Rodina Moskva, 23% draw, 56% FC Krasnodar — fair odds of 4.76, 4.35 and 1.79.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

FC Krasnodar at 56%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Soltmurad Bakaev
16'
Leon Musaev
23'
29'
Christian
40'
Aleksandr Chernikov
45'
🔁Daniil Utkinout: Dmitriy Vorobyov
45'
🔁Aleksandr Chernikovout: Efim Burkin
🔁Magomedkhabib Abdusalamovout: Artem Maksimenko
58'
Deiver Machado
60'
64'
⚽Christianassist: Dmitriy Vorobyov
⚽German Onugkhaassist: Andrey Egorychev
69'
70'
🔁Valentin Paltsevout: Sergey Petrov
71'
Lucas Olaza
🔁Yordy Reynaout: Kirill Ushatov
74'
🔁German Onugkhaout: Ivan Timoshenko
74'
77'
🔁Joao Batxiout: Juan Manuel Boselli
77'
🔁Kevin Pinaout: Douglas Augusto
🔁Andrey Egorychevout: Iker Pozo
82'
🔁Soltmurad Bakaevout: Brian Mansilla
82'
Artem Maksimenko
84'
⚽Douglas Augusto (OG)
86'

Match stats — Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar

47%Possession53%
11Shots12
4On target5
1Corners1
0.91xG1.11

Goals against chances

Rodina Moskva2 from 0.91 xGmore than the chances were worth
FC Krasnodar1 from 1.11 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rodina Moskva 5-4-1
  • 13S. VolkovG
  • 2Igor SilvaD
  • 50Rodrigo BecãoD
  • 38L. MusaevD
  • 75M. NadéD
  • 20D. MachadoD
  • 18M. AbdusalamovM
  • 5A. EgorychevM
  • 10Y. ReynaM
  • 17S. BakaevM
  • 7G. OnugkhaF
Substitutes
  • 1S. AydarovG
  • 23K. UshatovM
  • 99I. TimoshenkoF
  • 80S. BessmertnyD
  • 95K. CissokoF
  • 6R. FishchenkoM
  • 3L. GoglichidzeD
  • 55M. KrižanD
  • 9A. MaksimenkoF
Coach: Jonatan Alba
FC Krasnodar 4-2-3-1
  • 1S. AgkatsevG
  • 17V. PaltsevD
  • 3Vítor TormenaD
  • 5JubalD
  • 15L. OlazaD
  • 53A. ChernikovM
  • 6Kevin PinaM
  • 18ChristianM
  • 47D. UtkinM
  • 11BatxiM
  • 9J. CórdobaF
Substitutes
  • 2M. RodríguezD
  • 98S. PetrovD
  • 21M. OzdoevM
  • 16A. KoryakinG
  • 8Douglas AugustoM
  • 27E. BurkinM
  • 23J. BoselliF
  • 10D. VorobjevF
Coach: M. Musaev

Form going into Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar

Rodina Moskva

Premier League

  • W1-0away to Fakel24 October 2026
  • D2-2FC Orenburg19 October 2026
  • L0-3away to CSKA Moscow11 October 2026

FC Krasnodar

Premier League

  • D1-1Baltika24 October 2026
  • D3-3away to Lokomotiv17 October 2026
  • L2-3Zenit10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Russia Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
13Rodina Moskva143381529-1412
4FC Krasnodar147522518+726

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rodina Moskva vs FC Krasnodar

  • 3 February 2024FC Krasnodar 3–0 Rodina MoskvaFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Rodina Moskva and FC Krasnodar

Rodina Moskva

GoalsAssists

  • A. Maksimenko31

FC Krasnodar

GoalsAssists

  • J. Córdoba61
  • Batxi53
  • Christian34

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Rodina Moskva beat FC Krasnodar 2–1. The model had leaned towards a win for FC Krasnodar at 56% and given a win for Rodina Moskva 21%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 5 matches like this one. The goals: Christian 64' for FC Krasnodar, German Onugkha 69' for Rodina Moskva, Douglas Augusto (own goal) 86' for Rodina Moskva. On expected goals it finished 0.91–1.11.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Rodina Moskva a 85.1% chance to finish in the bottom four: 75.8% after a win, 84.6% after a draw, 88.6% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 75.8%, 9.3 points lower than before the match.

For FC Krasnodar the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 66.1% going in: 70.3% after a win, 59.9% after a draw, 59.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 59.2%, 6.9 points lower than before the match.

Read from our Premier League season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Rodina Moskva v FC Krasnodar has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 18% / 22% / 60% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 21% / 23% / 56%: the biggest move is FC Krasnodar's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Rodina Moskva win21%▲ +3
  2. Draw23%▲ +1
  3. FC Krasnodar win56%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.