31 October 2026, 14:45 UTC

Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC NB I prediction & result

Bozsik Arena, Budapest
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Budapest Honved 1-0 Kisvarda FC.

Before kick-off the model made it 38% Budapest Honved, 29% draw, 33% Kisvarda FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.45 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Budapest Honved at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Dominik Soltész (OG)
3'
15'
Hianga'a M'Bock
27'
Amos Youga
45'
🔁Tonislav Yordanovout: Teslim Abdulateef Balogun
Csontos Dominik Zoltan
46'
67'
🔁Miroszláv Babjákout: Á Ésik
67'
🔁Amos Yougaout: Christián Herc
77'
Dominik Soltész
🔁Alberto Mariout: Kevin Sydney Kantor
78'
82'
🔁Bogdan Melnykout: Jasmin Mešanović
🔁Ádám Szamosiout: Ákos Zuigeber
86'
🔁Deian Boldorout: Branko Pauljević
87'
90'
Á Ésik
🔁Patrik Pinteout: Oleksandr Safronov
90+1'

Match stats — Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC

54%Possession46%
12Shots9
3On target2
3Corners2
0.76xG0.69

Goals against chances

Budapest Honved1 from 0.76 xGabout what the chances were worth
Kisvarda FC0 from 0.69 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Budapest Honved 4-4-2
  • 31O. HadžikićG
  • 4A. SzabóD
  • 44Á. BakiD
  • 52D. BoldorD
  • 3P. GarciaD
  • 17P. PinteM
  • 99I. PekárM
  • 5D. CsontosM
  • 40Adam SzamosiM
  • 30T. SomogyiF
  • 45Alberto MaríF
Substitutes
  • 15Bonifac CsonkaD
  • 11S. HangyaD
  • 49B. PauljevićD
  • 33O. SafronovD
  • 83T. TujvelG
  • 80R. EddarrajM
  • 7A. ZuigeberF
  • 41Áron RussnákD
  • 71K. KantorF
Coach: M. Jacobacci
Kisvarda FC 4-4-2
  • 23I. PopovichG
  • 55K. NagyD
  • 42T. LippaiD
  • 25B. ŠerbečićD
  • 10D. SoltészD
  • 29B. BíróM
  • 22A. YougaM
  • 80H. MbockM
  • 37Miroslav BabjakM
  • 99T. YordanovF
  • 14B. MelnykF
Substitutes
  • 6Maxim OsztrovkaM
  • 86S. NovothnyF
  • 27J. MešanovićF
  • 1M. KovácsG
  • 18K. KörmendiM
  • 4M. ChlumeckýD
  • 70L. SzőrM
  • 77Ákos ÉsikF
  • 45T. A. BalogunF
Coach: A. Supka

Form going into Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC

Budapest Honved

NB I

  • L0-2Debreceni VSC24 October 2026
  • W1-0away to Nyiregyhaza17 October 2026
  • D1-1Ujpest11 October 2026

Kisvarda FC

NB I

  • D1-1away to Zalaegerszegi TE24 October 2026
  • D1-1Ferencvarosi TC18 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Vasas10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
8Budapest Honved123541619-314
11Kisvarda FC132651215-312

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Budapest Honved vs Kisvarda FC

  • 25 July 2026Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 27 June 2026Budapest Honved 2–1 Kisvarda FCFriendlies Clubs
  • 18 May 2025Budapest Honved 3–0 Kisvarda FCNB II
  • 25 November 2024Kisvarda FC 1–1 Budapest HonvedNB II
  • 29 April 2023Kisvarda FC 2–2 Budapest HonvedNB I
  • 4 February 2023Budapest Honved 1–1 Kisvarda FCNB I

The result against the call

Budapest Honved beat Kisvarda FC 1–0. That was the exact score the model named before kick-off, with a win for Budapest Honved at 38%. The goal: Dominik Soltész (own goal) 3' for Budapest Honved. On expected goals it finished 0.76–0.69.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Budapest Honved a 43.1% chance to finish in the bottom two: 34.8% after a win, 45.2% after a draw, 51.7% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.8%, 8.3 points lower than before the match.

For Kisvarda FC the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 26.6% going in: 18.4% after a win, 26.3% after a draw, 32.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 32.6%, 6 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Budapest Honved v Kisvarda FC has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 42% / 28% / 30% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 29% / 33%: the biggest move is Budapest Honved's chance of winning, down 4 points.

  1. Budapest Honved win38%▼ −4
  2. Draw29%▲ +1
  3. Kisvarda FC win33%▲ +3

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.