31 October 2026, 16:45 UTC

Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest NB I prediction & result

Zalaegerszeg
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Zalaegerszegi TE 3-0 MTK Budapest.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Zalaegerszegi TE, 25% draw, 30% MTK Budapest — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Zalaegerszegi TE at 45%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Zalaegerszegi TE99%Draw1%MTK Budapest0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
Mihály Kata
joseth peraza
56'
⚽Marlon Santos Teodoroassist: Maxsuell Alegria
65'
🔁joseth perazaout: Fernando José Vera García
67'
🔁Aiden Harangiout: Jose Manuel Calderon Portillo
67'
69'
🔁János Mikolay Timóteusout: István Bognár
69'
🔁Kristof Hinoraout: Milán Gábo Klausz
Fabricio Amato
72'
78'
Benedek Varju
🔁Marlon Santos Teodoroout: Arthur Henrique Marques Machado
78'
🔁Emin Kujovicout: Bence Kiss
79'
⚽Matheus Machadoassist: Fabricio Amato
81'
85'
🔁Mark Kerezsi Zalanout: Á Nyers
85'
🔁Adrian Zeljkovicout: Dániel Varga
🔁Matheus Machadoout: Lucas Alfonso
85'
⚽Fabricio Amatoassist: Bence Kiss
89'

Match stats — Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest

46%Possession54%
17Shots8
5On target3
5Corners3
1.15xG0.54

Goals against chances

Zalaegerszegi TE3 from 1.15 xGmore than the chances were worth
MTK Budapest0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Zalaegerszegi TE 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. Gundel-TakácsG
  • 2Aiden Joshua HarangiD
  • 4J. PerazaD
  • 13T. PeñalbaD
  • 8A. CsonkaD
  • 6E. KujovićM
  • 30F. AmatoM
  • 80MarlonM
  • 7Danylo KrevsunM
  • 23MaxM
  • 9Matheus MachadoF
Substitutes
  • 20M. RichardsM
  • 32L. AlfonsoF
  • 74B. BabosF
  • 18CalderónD
  • 10B. KissM
  • 21T. MaiganaF
  • 15Nicolás Elosú LarumbeM
  • 3Fernando José Vera GarcíaD
  • 17Teixeira GuilhermeF
Coach: Filipe Çelikkaya
MTK Budapest 4-2-3-1
  • 43Bence VargaG
  • 2B. VarjuD
  • 26V. ArmalasD
  • 55S. RadićD
  • 13M. TimoteusD
  • 6M. KataM
  • 80Adrian ZeljkovićM
  • 11G. JurekM
  • 17K. HinoraM
  • 77G. KomáromiM
  • 20Zalán Márk KerezsiF
Substitutes
  • 9M. KlauszF
  • 24T. FadgyasG
  • 10I. BognárM
  • 22J. BalázsG
  • 5D. HorváthD
  • 8A. G. ZuborM
  • 45D. VargaM
  • 37Adam NyersF
  • 30Sámuel Barnabás BakóF
Coach: Máté Pinezits

Form going into Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest

Zalaegerszegi TE

NB I

  • D1-1Kisvarda FC24 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Debreceni VSC18 October 2026
  • W5-1Nyiregyhaza11 October 2026

MTK Budapest

NB I

  • L0-5away to Ferencvarosi TC25 October 2026
  • W1-0Vasas16 October 2026
  • L0-3away to Paks10 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

NB I table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Zalaegerszegi TE134181724-713
10MTK Budapest133461827-913

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Zalaegerszegi TE vs MTK Budapest

  • 27 July 2026MTK Budapest 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 11 April 2026MTK Budapest 3–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 20 December 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
  • 21 September 2025MTK Budapest 1–0 Zalaegerszegi TENB I
  • 8 March 2025Zalaegerszegi TE 1–1 MTK BudapestNB I
  • 2 November 2024MTK Budapest 1–1 Zalaegerszegi TENB I

Leading scorers: Zalaegerszegi TE and MTK Budapest

Zalaegerszegi TE

GoalsAssists

  • Arthur Henrique30

MTK Budapest

GoalsAssists

  • G. Jurek71
  • Zalán Márk Kerezsi43

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Zalaegerszegi TE beat MTK Budapest 3–0. The model had made a win for Zalaegerszegi TE its most likely outcome, at 45%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Marlon Santos Teodoro 65' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Matheus Machado 81' for Zalaegerszegi TE, Fabricio Amato 89' for Zalaegerszegi TE. On expected goals it finished 1.15–0.54.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Zalaegerszegi TE a 38.9% chance to finish in the bottom two: 31.3% after a win, 41.7% after a draw, 46.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 31.3%, 7.6 points lower than before the match.

For MTK Budapest the question was the chance to finish in the bottom two, 28.7% going in: 20.1% after a win, 28.0% after a draw, 34.6% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 34.6%, 5.9 points higher than before the match.

Read from our NB I season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Zalaegerszegi TE v MTK Budapest has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 43% / 26% / 31% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 7 updates, it read 45% / 25% / 30%: the biggest move is Zalaegerszegi TE's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Zalaegerszegi TE win45%▲ +2
  2. Draw25%▼ −1
  3. MTK Budapest win30%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.