El Geish vs Smouha SC Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Geish 0-1 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 41% El Geish, 30% draw, 29% Smouha SC — fair odds of 2.44, 3.33 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
El Geish at 41%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Geish vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18E. El SayedG
- 24El Zoughbi
- 6K. SotohiD
- 4M. CamachoD
- 19H. El GabryD
- 32Y. MostafaM
- 22M. El KhawagaM
- 30M. AtefM
- 12I. Mohareb
- 11K. Tarek
- 9F. HatemF
- 77M. Magdy
- 8A. ZolaM
- 15M. ShabanaD
- 21Khaled Ramadan
- 5H. SouissiM
- 13K. KomlaviF
- 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
- 10M. HanyF
- 25A. TarekM
- 28A. MayhoubG
- 2H. HafezD
- 24M. Ragab
- 4Abdel Rasoul AhmedD
- 3M. DesoukiD
- 7A. El SisiM
- 21A. MohamedM
- 19M. AdelM
- 66K. MohamedM
- 14MakaronaM
- 23F. FaridF
- 1H. TaimourG
- 6A. Amer
- 13C. NiyigenaD
- 30A. GamalD
- 10K. El GhandourM
- 8S. Fekri
- 27H. BalahaF
- 9M. HamdiM
- 29G. Chukwudi
Form going into El Geish vs Smouha SC
El Geish
Premier League
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
Smouha SC
Premier League
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Egypt Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | El Geish | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 8 |
| 9 | Smouha SC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Geish vs Smouha SC
- 9 August 2025Smouha SC 1–1 El GeishPremier League
- 6 May 2025Smouha SC 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 23 November 2024El Geish 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 22 June 2024El Geish 2–2 Smouha SCPremier League
- 27 December 2023Smouha SC 1–0 El GeishPremier League
Leading scorers: El Geish and Smouha SC
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Smouha SC
GoalsAssists
- P. Badji21
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Smouha SC won 1–0 at El Geish. The model had leaned towards a win for El Geish at 41% and given a win for Smouha SC 29%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: Makarona 62' for Smouha SC. Sent off: Yehia Mostafa (El Geish) 40'. On expected goals it finished 0.47–1.00.
How the call on El Geish v Smouha SC has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 37% / 30% / 33% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 4 updates, it read 41% / 30% / 29%: the biggest move is El Geish's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- El Geish win41%▲ +4
- Draw30%=
- Smouha SC win29%▼ −4
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.