El Geish
vs
Smouha SC
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: El Geish 0-1 Smouha SC.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% El Geish, 30% draw, 30% Smouha SC — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: El Geish 1.38, Smouha SC 1.02.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: El Geish vs Smouha SC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts El Geish at 40% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — El Geish vs Smouha SC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18E. El SayedG
- 24El Zoughbi
- 6K. SotohiD
- 4M. CamachoD
- 19H. El GabryD
- 32Y. MostafaM
- 22M. El KhawagaM
- 30M. AtefM
- 12I. Mohareb
- 11K. Tarek
- 9F. HatemF
- 77M. Magdy
- 8A. ZolaM
- 15M. ShabanaD
- 21Khaled Ramadan
- 5H. SouissiM
- 13K. KomlaviF
- 28I. Ouro-AgoroF
- 10M. HanyF
- 25A. TarekM
- 28A. MayhoubG
- 2H. HafezD
- 24M. Ragab
- 4Abdel Rasoul AhmedD
- 3M. DesoukiD
- 7A. El SisiM
- 21A. MohamedM
- 19M. AdelM
- 66K. MohamedM
- 14MakaronaM
- 23F. FaridF
- 1H. TaimourG
- 6A. Amer
- 13C. NiyigenaD
- 30A. GamalD
- 10K. El GhandourM
- 8S. Fekri
- 27H. BalahaF
- 9M. HamdiM
- 29G. Chukwudi
Form going into El Geish vs Smouha SC
El Geish
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
- W1-0El Mokawloon22 August 2026
Smouha SC
- L0-2Ceramica Cleopatra8 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ahly3 September 2026
- D0-0Asyut Petrol26 August 2026
- L0-1away to Al Masry22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | El Geish | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 | Smouha SC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: El Geish vs Smouha SC
- 14 September 2026El Geish 0–1 Smouha SCPremier League
- 9 August 2025Smouha SC 1–1 El GeishPremier League
- 6 May 2025Smouha SC 0–0 El GeishPremier League
- 23 November 2024El Geish 0–0 Smouha SCPremier League
- 22 June 2024El Geish 2–2 Smouha SCPremier League
- 27 December 2023Smouha SC 1–0 El GeishPremier League
Leading scorers: El Geish and Smouha SC
El Geish
- Islam Mohareb2 goals1 assists
- Mohamed Atef1 goals3 assists
Smouha SC
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 1 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.38 goals for El Geish and 1.02 for Smouha SC; the game produced 0 and 1.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Makarona 62' (Smouha SC).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives El Geish the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.38 expected goals for El Geish against 1.02 for Smouha SC. El Geish's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.66 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.84 for Smouha SC.