Wadi Degla
vs
El Mokawloon
Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Wadi Degla 0-2 El Mokawloon.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Wadi Degla, 28% draw, 30% El Mokawloon — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wadi Degla 1.75, El Mokawloon 1.29.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Model insights: Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wadi Degla at 42% here. Across 2477 settled matches, 1116 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon
Line-ups
- 1Amr HossamG
- 2Shady MaherD
- 28S. TekaD
- 6Kamal Abou ElfetouhD
- 21Ahmed RedaD
- 25Ibrahim El BahnasiM
- 19A. MahmoudM
- 10Mahmoud DiastyM
- 14Mohamed Abdel AatiM
- 22ZizoM
- 32Ahmed FaroukF
- 13Z. SeyamG
- 20Mohamed JuhaynaM
- 3Omar AdlyD
- 17H. HassanF
- 34M. KaandorpM
- 8Ahmed ScholesM
- 7Youssef OyaF
- 5Ahmed DahrougD
- 27Ahmed RefaatF
- 18Mohamed FawziG
- 26Ahmed Magdy KahrabaD
- 4Hassan HusseinD
- 3Mohamed HamedD
- 23J. OchayaD
- 6D. DokouM
- 12Omar El WahshM
- 20Islam GaberM
- 14Mostafa GamalM
- 29Omar KamalM
- 99Shady HusseinF
- 92Idrissa ThiamF
- 15M. SandouqaM
- 1Mahmoud Abou El SaoudG
- 24Nader HeshamD
- 17M. RifaatF
- 7Anas BaniowdaF
- 28Ibrahim AdelM
- 19A. Aouled BehiM
- 2Youssef Ahmed RamadanD
Form going into Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon
Wadi Degla
- L1-2away to Future FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Olympic El Qanah1 September 2026
- W3-1away to Enppi28 August 2026
- D0-0Masr21 August 2026
El Mokawloon
- D1-1Al Ahly9 September 2026
- W1-0away to El Gouna FC2 September 2026
- L2-3Al Masry27 August 2026
- L0-1away to El Geish22 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wadi Degla | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 7 | El Mokawloon | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Wadi Degla vs El Mokawloon
- 15 September 2026Wadi Degla 0–2 El MokawloonPremier League
- 18 May 2026El Mokawloon 1–1 Wadi DeglaPremier League
- 5 February 2026Wadi Degla 0–1 El MokawloonPremier League
- 25 April 2025Wadi Degla 0–1 El MokawloonSecond League
- 15 December 2024El Mokawloon 0–0 Wadi DeglaSecond League
- 22 April 2021El Mokawloon 1–0 Wadi DeglaPremier League
Leading scorers: Wadi Degla and El Mokawloon
Wadi Degla
- S. Touka2 goals
El Mokawloon
- Mostafa Gamal2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Expected against actual
Pre-match the model expected 1.75 goals for Wadi Degla and 1.29 for El Mokawloon; the game produced 0 and 2.
Goals
Scorers, in order: Idrissa Thiam 80' (El Mokawloon), Mostafa Gamal 90' (El Mokawloon).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1168 correct results out of 2477 settled predictions (47%), with 234 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wadi Degla the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Wadi Degla against 1.29 for El Mokawloon. Wadi Degla's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.7/1.76 for El Mokawloon.