23 August 2026, 19:30 UTC

FC Porto vs Arouca Primeira Liga prediction & result

Porto
Full time2 – 0

Final score: FC Porto 2-0 Arouca.

Before kick-off the model made it 58% FC Porto, 22% draw, 20% Arouca — fair odds of 1.72, 4.55 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts FC Porto at 58% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

FC Porto99%Draw1%Arouca0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

•Jakub Kiwior
59'
62'
🔁H. Leeout: P. Gozalbez
62'
🔁I. Barberoout: D. Nandin
⚽G. Veigaassist: William Gomes
67'
🔁Andre Silvaout: D. Gul
72'
72'
🔁E. van Eeout: Pedro Santos
72'
🔁A. Trezzaout: B. Mansilla
🔁G. Veigaout: Hwang In-Beom
76'
🔁William Gomesout: B. Sainz
76'
Hwang In-beom
83'
⚽B. Sainzassist: Pepe
86'
🔁J. Bednarekout: N. Perez
88'
88'
🔁Tiago Esgaioout: M. Flores

Match stats — FC Porto vs Arouca

53%Possession47%
23Shots4
10On target1
12Corners2
3xG0.54

Goals against chances

FC Porto2 from 3.00 xGless than the chances were worth
Arouca0 from 0.54 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

FC Porto 4-3-3
  • 99D. CostaG
  • 20A. CostaD
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 4J. KiwiorD
  • 12ZaiduD
  • 8V. FroholdtM
  • 13P. RosarioM
  • 10G. VeigaM
  • 7William GomesF
  • 19Andre SilvaF
  • 11PepêF
Substitutes
  • 24J. CostaG
  • 50J. AfonsoG
  • 18N. PerezD
  • 21D. PrpicD
  • 74F. MouraD
  • 6S. EustaquioM
  • 16Hwang In-BeomM
  • 22A. VarelaM
  • 59T. AndradeF
Coach: Francesco Farioli
Arouca 4-2-3-1
  • 12I. De ArruabarrenaG
  • 28Tiago EsgaioD
  • 15J. SanchezD
  • 3J. FontanD
  • 18O. LebedenkoD
  • 6E. van EeM
  • 8T. FukuiM
  • 19A. TrezzaM
  • 14H. LeeM
  • 7N. DjouahraM
  • 17I. BarberoF
Substitutes
  • 1J. VinarcikG
  • 71M. DuarteG
  • 5B. PopovicD
  • 37M. ClimentD
  • 4D. MonteiroD
  • 89Pedro SantosM
  • 10P. GozalbezM
  • 21M. FloresM
  • 9F. MayuluF
Coach: Vasco Seabra

Form going into FC Porto vs Arouca

FC Porto

  • W2-0away to Rio Ave15 August 2026

Arouca

  • W4-0Moreirense16 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1FC Porto6600152+1318
5Arouca631285+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Arouca

  • 23 August 2026FC Porto 2–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 27 February 2026FC Porto 3–1 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 29 September 2025Arouca 0–4 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 1 March 2025Arouca 0–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga
  • 29 September 2024FC Porto 4–0 AroucaPrimeira Liga
  • 12 February 2024Arouca 3–2 FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Leading scorers: FC Porto and Arouca

FC Porto

  • Gabri Veiga3 goals3 assists
  • Borja Sainz3 goals
  • André Silva3 goals

Arouca

  • Barbero4 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.