22 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa Süper Lig prediction & result

Corum Stadyumu, Corum
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Çorum FK 0-1 Kasımpaşa.

Before kick-off the model made it 31% Çorum FK, 26% draw, 43% Kasımpaşa — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kasımpaşa at 43% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Çorum FK0%Draw4%Kasımpaşa96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

6'
⚽A. Benedyczakassist: C. Winck
39'
Jakob Jessen
•Mohammed Diomande
44'
46'
🔁M. Raffertyout: A. Kol
🔁S. Gurlerout: M. Thiam
59'
🔁M. Karlsbakkout: E. Gurluk
59'
59'
🔁G. Yalcinout: A. Karapo
67'
🔁A. Baldurssonout: E. Mendes
🔁Fredyout: A. Ildiz
68'
77'
Matei Ilie
🔁Y. Ramadaniout: B. Ozdemir
78'
🔁M. Diomandeout: K. Fakili
78'
Ahmed Ildız
84'
85'
🔁A. Benedyczakout: A. Dagbasi
85'
🔁C. Winckout: E. Boz
89'
Ayberk Karapo

Match stats — Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa

75%Possession25%
16Shots6
2On target1
7Corners0
0.92xG0.31

Goals against chances

Çorum FK0 from 0.92 xGless than the chances were worth
Kasımpaşa1 from 0.31 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Çorum FK 4-1-4-1
  • 1Marcos FelipeG
  • 11G. SazdagiD
  • 5Alexandre PenetraD
  • 6H. SmolcicD
  • 24A. BorzaD
  • 20Y. RamadaniM
  • 10M. DiomandeM
  • 8M. KarlsbakkM
  • 16FredyM
  • 7S. GurlerM
  • 19J. RamirezF
Substitutes
  • 18E. ErenturkG
  • 22H. BulutD
  • 4S. SaatciD
  • 15A. SengulD
  • 30A. IldizM
  • 3B. OzdemirM
  • 42K. FakiliM
  • 9M. ThiamF
  • 99H. Abdulkareem
Coach: Cagdas Cavus
Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. GianniotisG
  • 2C. WinckD
  • 4A. ArousD
  • 27M. IlieD
  • 5J. JessenD
  • 16A. BaldurssonM
  • 26K. DemirbayM
  • 50G. YalcinM
  • 34F. DiabateM
  • 19M. RaffertyM
  • 9A. BenedyczakF
Substitutes
  • 25A. YanarG
  • 45A. KarapoD
  • 29T. AydinD
  • 30A. DagbasiD
  • 8A. MujdeM
  • 51E. MendesM
  • 66E. BozM
  • 7A. KolF
  • 23S. Alkas
Coach: Shota Arveladze

Form going into Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa

Çorum FK

  • D2-2away to Galatasaray14 August 2026

Kasımpaşa

  • D1-1Trabzonspor15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Çorum FK52121210+27
4Kasımpaşa523075+29

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Çorum FK vs Kasımpaşa

  • 22 August 2026Çorum FK 0–1 KasımpaşaSüper Lig
  • 24 September 2019Çorum FK 0–1 KasımpaşaTürkiye Kupası

Leading scorers: Çorum FK and Kasımpaşa

Çorum FK

  • C. Ramírez3 goals1 assists
  • A. Kyziridis3 goals1 assists
  • Ermin Mahmić2 goals1 assists

Kasımpaşa

  • A. Benedyczak4 goals1 assists
  • G. Yalçın2 goals

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.