22 August 2026, 16:00 UTC

Rizespor vs Samsunspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Rize
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Rizespor 0-2 Samsunspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Rizespor, 22% draw, 33% Samsunspor — fair odds of 2.22, 4.55 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Rizespor at 45% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 1122 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Rizespor0%Draw1%Samsunspor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

27'
Logi Tomasson
33'
⚽J. Mendesassist: S. Jarju
63'
⚽F. Kayaassist: S. Jarju
65'
🔁Y. Kayanout: S. Onur
🔁I. Olawoyinout: D. Varesanovic
67'
🔁A. Mebudeout: E. Bulut
67'
🔁T. Antalyaliout: M. C. Tosun
80'
🔁Z. Arissout: T. T. Sanuc
81'
Modibo Sagnan
83'
85'
🔁S. Jarjuout: T. Bulbul
🔁M. Sagnanout: M. Faye
88'
90+1'
🔁F. Kayaout: A. Sekongo

Match stats — Rizespor vs Samsunspor

60%Possession40%
28Shots6
8On target3
10Corners1
1.6xG0.28

Goals against chances

Rizespor0 from 1.60 xGless than the chances were worth
Samsunspor2 from 0.28 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Rizespor 4-2-3-1
  • 75Y. FofanaG
  • 54M. PalaD
  • 4A. MocsiD
  • 93M. SagnanD
  • 17Z. ArissD
  • 10I. OlawoyinM
  • 14T. AntalyaliM
  • 11A. MebudeM
  • 20Q. LaciM
  • 23A. KutucuM
  • 9A. SoweF
Substitutes
  • 30Z. GorgenG
  • 5T. T. SanucD
  • 37T. SahinD
  • 21S. BakayokoD
  • 19U. ErdemD
  • 47E. Yilmaz
  • 8D. VaresanovicM
  • 22M. FayeF
  • 99E. BulutF
Coach: Recep Ucar
Samsunspor 4-3-3
  • 1O. KocukG
  • 2J. MendesD
  • 24T. BorevkovicD
  • 6A. B. DiabbateD
  • 17L. TomassonD
  • 4E. WattM
  • 5C. YukselM
  • 20Y. KayanM
  • 30S. JarjuF
  • 14F. KayaF
  • 11E. KilincF
Substitutes
  • 25B. BayazitG
  • 13E. UstunG
  • 34G. GuarinoD
  • 72M. TanD
  • 23E. Albak
  • 8S. OnurM
  • 21E. DegirmenciM
  • 42A. SekongoM
  • 70T. BulbulM
Coach: Thorsten Fink

Form going into Rizespor vs Samsunspor

Rizespor

  • W1-0away to Konyaspor15 August 2026

Samsunspor

  • D3-3Göztepe17 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Rizespor530254+19
13Samsunspor5113611-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Rizespor vs Samsunspor

  • 22 August 2026Rizespor 0–2 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 9 April 2026Rizespor 4–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 27 October 2025Samsunspor 1–1 RizesporSüper Lig
  • 22 February 2025Samsunspor 2–3 RizesporSüper Lig
  • 22 September 2024Rizespor 0–1 SamsunsporSüper Lig
  • 23 February 2024Samsunspor 3–0 RizesporSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Rizespor and Samsunspor

Rizespor

  • E. Bulut2 goals1 assists

Samsunspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.