22 August 2026, 18:30 UTC

Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor Süper Lig prediction & result

Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu, Istanbul
Full time4 – 2

Final score: Fenerbahçe 4-2 Konyaspor.

Before kick-off the model made it 87% Fenerbahçe, 8% draw, 5% Konyaspor — fair odds of 1.15, 12.50 and 20.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 3-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Fenerbahçe at 87% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 276 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 60.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.5%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Fenerbahçe99%Draw1%Konyaspor0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽V. Muriqi
7'
10'
⚽E. Colleyassist: Y. Andzouana
•Mason Greenwood
16'
⚽Mason Greenwood (pen)
20'
⚽M. Greenwood
20'
⚽M. Asensioassist: M. Greenwood
33'
45+4'
Deniz Türüç
45+4'
Adil Demirbağ
⚽M. Greenwoodassist: V. Muriqi
49'
🔁K. Akturkogluout: D. Nene
54'
60'
🔁E. Colleyout: M. Jevtovic
60'
🔁D. Goncalvesout: E. Bardhi
61'
Enis Bardhi
🔁A. Brownout: L. Mercan
63'
🔁N. Kanteout: I. Yuksek
63'
🔁M. Asensioout: O. Aydin
68'
🔁V. Muriqiout: R. Lukaku
69'
73'
🔁J. Mulekaout: B. Kramer
73'
🔁R. Tothout: E. Destan
74'
🔁U. Yazgiliout: A. Masuaku
79'
🔁C. Awaziemout: R. Baniya
🔁M. Greenwoodout: B. Elmaz
85'
90'
⚽D. Turuc

Match stats — Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor

50%Possession50%
18Shots15
8On target7
5Corners3
2.33xG1.26

Goals against chances

Fenerbahçe4 from 2.33 xGmore than the chances were worth
Konyaspor2 from 1.26 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Fenerbahçe 4-2-3-1
  • 31EdersonG
  • 27N. SemedoD
  • 37M. SkriniarD
  • 15N. AkeD
  • 3A. BrownD
  • 91N. KanteM
  • 6M. GuendouziM
  • 11M. GreenwoodM
  • 10M. AsensioM
  • 7K. AkturkogluM
  • 19V. MuriqiF
Substitutes
  • 13T. CetinG
  • 18M. MuldurD
  • 14Y. E. DemirD
  • 22L. MercanD
  • 5I. YuksekM
  • 28B. ElmazM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 17I. KahveciM
  • 70O. AydinF
Coach: Ismail Kartal
Konyaspor 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. ErtasG
  • 5U. YazgiliD
  • 15C. AwaziemD
  • 4A. DemirbagD
  • 17Y. AndzouanaD
  • 66R. TothM
  • 77M. IbrahimogluM
  • 9D. TurucM
  • 7D. GoncalvesM
  • 19E. ColleyM
  • 11J. MulekaF
Substitutes
  • 29E. AydinG
  • 26A. MasuakuD
  • 22R. BaniyaD
  • 3A. BoslukD
  • 8M. JevtovicM
  • 10E. BardhiM
  • 25O. CobanogluM
  • 99B. KramerF
  • 94E. DestanF
Coach: Ilhan Palut

Form going into Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor

Fenerbahçe

  • L1-2away to Gençlerbirliği S.K.15 August 2026

Konyaspor

  • L0-1Rizespor15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Süper Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Fenerbahçe521286+27
16Konyaspor510448-43

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Fenerbahçe vs Konyaspor

  • 22 August 2026Fenerbahçe 4–2 KonyasporSüper Lig
  • 9 May 2026Konyaspor 0–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig
  • 21 April 2026Konyaspor 1–0 FenerbahçeTürkiye Kupası
  • 15 December 2025Fenerbahçe 4–0 KonyasporSüper Lig
  • 31 May 2025Fenerbahçe 2–1 KonyasporSüper Lig
  • 13 January 2025Konyaspor 2–3 FenerbahçeSüper Lig

Leading scorers: Fenerbahçe and Konyaspor

Fenerbahçe

  • V. Muriqi2 goals1 assists
  • M. Greenwood2 goals1 assists

Konyaspor

No player in Süper Lig's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.