7 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas 1. Division prediction & result

Alphamega Stadium, Kolossi
Referee: Chrysovalantis Theouli, Cyprus
Full time3 – 1

Final score: AEL 3-1 Krasava Ypsonas.

Before kick-off the model made it 50% AEL, 26% draw, 24% Krasava Ypsonas — fair odds of 2.00, 3.85 and 4.17.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

AEL at 50%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

AEL99%Draw1%Krasava Ypsonas0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

28'
D. Keita
⚽L. Singh
33'
39'
S. Tabekou
46'
🔁P. Angeliout: R. Pardo
58'
🔁S. Tabekouout: A. Athanasiou
58'
🔁V. Papafotisout: M. Panagidis
D. Paroutis
60'
🔁D. Paroutisout: B. Almeida
65'
🔁F. R. Mugheout: J. Tavares
73'
⚽A. Karo
76'
78'
🔁N. Boatengout: D. Melnichenko
78'
🔁E. Budnikout: Jeka
81'
⚽R. Pardo
85'
R. Pardo
⚽J. Tavares
88'
🔁J. Tavaresout: G. Papageorgiou
90'
🔁L. Singhout: C. Geoffrey
90'

Line-ups

AEL 4-2-3-1
  • 1Stefanos KapinoG
  • 35Sérgio ConceiçãoD
  • 2Andreas KaroD
  • 23Diogo GomesD
  • 19Ivan MilosavljevićM
  • 20João TavaresM
  • 6Davor ZdravkovskiM
  • 77François Régis MugheM
  • 10Rémi OudinM
  • 11Luther SinghM
  • 17Danil ParoutisM
Substitutes
  • 8Bruno AlmeidaM
  • 80Jair TavaresM
  • 30Giorgos PapageorgiouM
  • 99Chinedu GeoffreyF
  • 98Panagiotis KyriakouG
  • 74Samy MerzoukG
  • 22Kypros NeofytouD
  • 70Kyriakos KyriakouD
  • 26Jayden Peti PetiM
Krasava Ypsonas 4-2-3-1
  • 25Andreas ChristodoulouG
  • 29Issam ChebakeD
  • 3Luiyi de LucasD
  • 30Fanos KatelarisD
  • 77Giannis KiakosD
  • 19Nana BoatengM
  • 22Panagiotis AngeliM
  • 13Serge TabekouM
  • 10Vasilios PapafotisM
  • 21Diby KeitaF
  • 9Yevgeni BudnikF
Substitutes
  • 14Rubén PardoM
  • 20Andreas AthanasiouM
  • 11Michalis PanagidisM
  • 18Dmytro MelnichenkoM
  • 7Yevhen SerdyukF
  • 75Yuriy AvramenkoG
  • 33Konstantinos VenizelosD
  • 16Erik DavidyanD
  • 5Kristopher Da GracaD

Form going into AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas

AEL

1. Division

  • L0-2away to Omonia Nicosia31 October 2026
  • L1-3Aris25 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Omonia Aradippou18 October 2026
  • W2-1Omonia 29is Maiou11 October 2026

Krasava Ypsonas

1. Division

  • D2-2AEK Larnaca31 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Olympiakos24 October 2026
  • W2-1Karmiotissa17 October 2026
  • L1-3Apollon Limassol10 October 2026

What these results say

  • AEL scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • AEL conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Krasava Ypsonas scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Krasava Ypsonas conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Krasava Ypsonas.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3AEL96031414018
14Krasava Ypsonas9126920-115

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: AEL vs Krasava Ypsonas

  • 2 May 2026Krasava Ypsonas 1–1 AEL1. Division
  • 9 February 2026Krasava Ypsonas 3–0 AEL1. Division
  • 26 October 2025AEL 1–0 Krasava Ypsonas1. Division

Leading scorers: AEL and Krasava Ypsonas

AEL

No player in 1. Division's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Krasava Ypsonas

GoalsAssists

  • S. Tabekou21
  • Yassine Bahassa11

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

AEL beat Krasava Ypsonas 3–1. The model had made a win for AEL its most likely outcome, at 50%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: L. Singh 33' for AEL, A. Karo 76' for AEL, R. Pardo 81' for Krasava Ypsonas, J. Tavares 88' for AEL.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave AEL a 36.4% chance to finish in the top six: 42.1% after a win, 30.5% after a draw, 27.1% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 42.1%, 5.7 points higher than before the match.

For Krasava Ypsonas the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 65.2% going in: 54.1% after a win, 64.7% after a draw, 70.7% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 70.7%, 5.5 points higher than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on AEL v Krasava Ypsonas has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 55% / 25% / 20% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 50% / 26% / 24%: the biggest move is AEL's chance of winning, down 5 points.

  1. AEL win50%▼ −5
  2. Draw26%▲ +1
  3. Krasava Ypsonas win24%▲ +4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.