7 November 2026, 17:00 UTC

Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol 1. Division prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Constantinos Fellas, Cyprus
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Olympiakos 1-0 Apollon Limassol.

Before kick-off the model made it 32% Olympiakos, 26% draw, 42% Apollon Limassol — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Apollon Limassol at 42%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Olympiakos95%Draw5%Apollon Limassol0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Z. Savva
19'
⚽M. Tamas
32'
45'
G. Assuncao
45+1'
P. Kuhn
🔁E. Kundeout: M. Praxitelous
68'
🔁M. Pechlivanisout: A. Doumas
74'
74'
🔁A. Shikkisout: E. Andreou
74'
🔁I. Ljubicout: I. Ugbo
74'
🔁G. Weissbeckout: C. Goldson
🔁A. Vrikkisout: A. Lolis
77'
🔁Z. Savvaout: K. Irakleous
77'
90+1'
🔁B. Gasparout: N. Zinonos

Line-ups

Olympiakos 3-5-2
  • 1Christos TalichmanidisG
  • 5Eduardo KundeD
  • 24Márk TamásD
  • 55Henrique GomesD
  • 12Jean FelipeD
  • 2Christoforos FrantzisD
  • 10Dominik ProkopM
  • 21Constantinos ChristouM
  • 23Marios PechlivanisD
  • 9Zanos SavvaM
  • 77Agapios VrikkisM
Substitutes
  • 22Marios Praxitelous Al HerekD
  • 4Alexandros DoumasD
  • 11Alexandros LolisF
  • 29Kyprianos EracleousF
  • 32Michalis KyriakouG
  • 31Georgios KitsiosD
  • 20Georgios TziortzisM
  • 14Konstantinos IliaF
Apollon Limassol 4-2-3-1
  • 22Philipp KühnG
  • 76Bruno GasparD
  • 37Leonidas KonomisD
  • 44Josef KvidaD
  • 26Andreas SiikkisD
  • 5Morgan BrownM
  • 77Ivan LjubićM
  • 27Gaetan WeissbeckM
  • 12Gustavo AssunçãoM
  • 23Brandon ThomasM
  • 9Alen OžboltF
Substitutes
  • 6Connor GoldsonD
  • 11Evangelos AndreouM
  • 99Ike UgboF
  • 19Nearchos ZinonosD
  • 31Konstantinos StylianouG
  • 4Emanuel AiwuD
  • 16Augustine ChimaM
  • 89Robertos RotisF
  • 40Mubarak UthmanF

Form going into Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol

Olympiakos

1. Division

  • L0-1away to Karmiotissa30 October 2026
  • D1-1Krasava Ypsonas24 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Omonia Nicosia19 October 2026
  • L1-2Aris11 October 2026

Apollon Limassol

1. Division

  • D2-2Pafos31 October 2026
  • W5-0away to Karmiotissa25 October 2026
  • W4-2Nea Salamis17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Krasava Ypsonas10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Olympiakos did not win any of these 4 matches.
  • Olympiakos conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Olympiakos scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Apollon Limassol went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
  • Apollon Limassol scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Apollon Limassol had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Cyprus 1. Division table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
9Olympiakos91621213-19
5Apollon Limassol94412111+1016

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Olympiakos vs Apollon Limassol

  • 8 February 2026Apollon Limassol 3–1 Olympiakos1. Division
  • 25 October 2025Olympiakos 2–2 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 6 August 2025Apollon Limassol 3–2 OlympiakosFriendlies Clubs
  • 27 January 2023Apollon Limassol 2–1 Olympiakos1. Division
  • 21 October 2022Olympiakos 1–1 Apollon Limassol1. Division
  • 30 January 2022Apollon Limassol 2–1 Olympiakos1. Division

Leading scorers: Olympiakos and Apollon Limassol

Olympiakos

GoalsAssists

  • Zannetos Savva22
  • Jean Felipe11

Apollon Limassol

GoalsAssists

  • Brandon Thomas41
  • A. Ožbolt40
  • Garry Rodrigues24

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Olympiakos beat Apollon Limassol 1–0. The model had leaned towards a win for Apollon Limassol at 42% and given a win for Olympiakos 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: M. Tamas 32' for Olympiakos.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Olympiakos a 18.8% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.7% after a win, 18.7% after a draw, 22.9% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.7%, 6.1 points lower than before the match.

For Apollon Limassol the question was the chance to finish top of the regular season, 12.4% going in: 15.6% after a win, 9.8% after a draw, 8.2% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 8.2%, 4.2 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Division season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Olympiakos v Apollon Limassol has moved

First published on 24 Oct at 38% / 26% / 36% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 6 updates, it read 32% / 26% / 42%: the biggest move is Olympiakos's chance of winning, down 6 points.

  1. Olympiakos win32%▼ −6
  2. Draw26%=
  3. Apollon Limassol win42%▲ +6

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.