18 October 2026, 13:00 UTC

Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor 1. Lig prediction & result

Spor Toto Akhisar Stadium, Akhisar
Referee: Turgut Doman
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Vanspor FK 0-2 Ümraniyespor.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Vanspor FK, 29% draw, 32% Ümraniyespor — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Vanspor FK at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Vanspor FK0%Draw1%Ümraniyespor99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Jurgen Bardhiout: Ozan Kokcu
28'
45'
🔁Muhammet Tunahan Tasciout: Alejandro Blanco
56'
🔁Melih Bostanout: Berat Yılmaz
60'
⚽Alejandro Blancoassist: Berat Yılmaz
61'
🔁Bengali-Fodé Koitaout: Santeri Hostikka
🔁Özkan Yiğiterout: Jesse Khan
63'
🔁İlkan Severout: Alvaro de Oliveira
64'
71'
Berat Yılmaz
🔁Mehmet Özcanout: Hikmet Çiftçi
75'
🔁Mehmet Manisout: Muhammed Furkan Özhan
75'
82'
⚽Santeri Hostikkaassist: Berat Yılmaz
84'
🔁Cebio Soukouout: Toheeb Adeola Kosoko
84'
🔁Serkan Göksuout: Kerem Sen
90'
Kerem Sen
Alvaro de Oliveira
90+2'
90+2'
Oguz Yildirim

Match stats — Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor

61%Possession39%
14Shots5
4On target3
7Corners2
0.99xG0.51

Goals against chances

Vanspor FK0 from 0.99 xGless than the chances were worth
Ümraniyespor2 from 0.51 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Vanspor FK 4-3-3
  • 1A. UysalG
  • 77C. HanalpD
  • 5S. OsmanoğluD
  • 13N. OularéD
  • 61F. GençD
  • 11M. ManişM
  • 41M. ÖzcanM
  • 58Ö. YiğiterM
  • 27J. BardhiF
  • 17İlkan SeverF
  • 15T. YenneF
Substitutes
  • 22A. DamluG
  • 7I. AlhaftF
  • 65M. BingölD
  • 8M. KhanM
  • 10O. KökçüF
  • 2K. SevenD
  • 9Álvaro de OliveiraF
  • 19H. ÇiftçiM
  • 35B. İşçilerD
Coach: M. Gürsel
Ümraniyespor 4-4-2
  • 35C. TopaloğluG
  • 70O. YıldırımD
  • 58M. KartalD
  • 44T. GlumacD
  • 88E. GedikD
  • 77T. TaşçıM
  • 8S. GöksuM
  • 10A. ĐokanovićM
  • 27C. SoukouM
  • 9M. BostanF
  • 55F. KoitaF
Substitutes
  • 20A. BabacanM
  • 11Álex BlancoM
  • 7S. HostikkaF
  • 12Toheeb KosokoF
  • 13Ö. KöklüG
  • 66A. YaşarD
  • 17Berat YılmazM
  • 26B. ÇakırD
  • 53B. ÖksüzD
Coach: T. Albayrak

Form going into Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor

Vanspor FK

1. Lig

  • W2-1away to Pendikspor13 October 2026

Ümraniyespor

1. Lig

  • D1-1Sarıyer9 October 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

1. Lig table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
14Vanspor FK145361723-616
12Ümraniyespor134541612+417

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Vanspor FK vs Ümraniyespor

  • 19 April 2026Ümraniyespor 1–2 Vanspor FK1. Lig
  • 14 December 2025Vanspor FK 0–1 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
  • 25 March 2012Ümraniyespor 2–1 Vanspor FK3. Lig - Group 1
  • 22 December 2011Vanspor FK 0–1 Ümraniyespor3. Lig - Group 1

The result against the call

Ümraniyespor won 2–0 at Vanspor FK. The model had leaned towards a win for Vanspor FK at 39% and given a win for Ümraniyespor 32%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goals: Alejandro Blanco 60' for Ümraniyespor, Santeri Hostikka 82' for Ümraniyespor. Sent off: Oguz Yildirim (Ümraniyespor) 90+2'. On expected goals it finished 0.99–0.51.

What this result changed

Before kick-off the season simulation gave Vanspor FK a 50.3% chance to finish in the bottom three: 43.0% after a win, 52.2% after a draw, 58.4% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 58.4%, 8.1 points higher than before the match.

For Ümraniyespor the question was the chance to finish in the bottom three, 25.5% going in: 18.0% after a win, 26.6% after a draw, 29.4% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 18.0%, 7.5 points lower than before the match.

Read from our 1. Lig season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.

How the call on Vanspor FK v Ümraniyespor has moved

First published on 4 Oct at 37% / 31% / 32% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 5 updates, it read 39% / 29% / 32%: the biggest move is Vanspor FK's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Vanspor FK win39%▲ +2
  2. Draw29%▼ −2
  3. Ümraniyespor win32%=

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.