22 August 2026, 17:00 UTC

Estoril vs Rio Ave Primeira Liga prediction & result

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Estoril 0-2 Rio Ave.

Before kick-off the model made it 54% Estoril, 23% draw, 23% Rio Ave — fair odds of 1.85, 4.35 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Estoril at 54% here. Across 2485 settled matches, 635 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 52.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Estoril0%Draw1%Rio Ave99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

15'
⚽J. Blesaassist: Diogo Bezerra
52'
🔁R. Galcikout: A. Ntoi
53'
•Jalen Blesa
Fernando Medrano
68'
🔁T. Britoout: F. Garcia
68'
🔁F. Medranoout: T. Parente
69'
🔁R. Sanchezout: P. Carvalho
69'
72'
⚽Tambleassist: J. Blesa
🔁A. Tsounguiout: J. Arnolin
76'
🔁R. Guitaneout: Peixinho
76'
76'
🔁N. Abbeyout: M. Vrousai
81'
🔁J. Brabecout: Gustavo Mancha
81'
🔁Tambleout: D. Spikic
86'
Andreas Ndoj

Match stats — Estoril vs Rio Ave

55%Possession45%
18Shots3
6On target3
6Corners3
1.16xG0.7

Goals against chances

Estoril0 from 1.16 xGless than the chances were worth
Rio Ave2 from 0.70 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Estoril 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. RoblesG
  • 2R. SanchezD
  • 4FerroD
  • 15I. SierraD
  • 3F. MedranoD
  • 90T. BritoM
  • 5A. TsounguiM
  • 99R. GuitaneM
  • 12J. CarvalhoM
  • 7A. LacximicantM
  • 14Y. BegraouiF
Substitutes
  • 16M. TurkG
  • 23D. DiasG
  • 18G. CostaD
  • 25S. AndreouD
  • 19T. ParenteD
  • 22P. CarvalhoD
  • 42J. ArnolinD
  • 6JandroM
  • 80L. GomesM
Coach: Vasco Matos
Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
  • 99E. van der GouwG
  • 54G. LiavasD
  • 23F. PetrassoD
  • 14J. BrabecD
  • 6N. AbbeyD
  • 44T. NikitscherM
  • 90D. NascimentoM
  • 30R. Galcik
  • 11J. BlesaM
  • 7Diogo Bezerra
  • 9TambleF
Substitutes
  • 22K. ChamorroG
  • 17M. VrousaiF
  • 5A. NtoiD
  • 13J. LombotoD
  • 39Gustavo ManchaD
  • 60CaikeD
  • 79M. PatricioF
  • 70A. WenckM
  • 27T. MedinaM
Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos

Form going into Estoril vs Rio Ave

Estoril

  • L0-2away to Nacional16 August 2026

Rio Ave

  • L0-2FC Porto15 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primeira Liga table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
17Estoril602428-62
16Rio Ave6114514-94

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Estoril vs Rio Ave

  • 22 August 2026Estoril 0–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 22 March 2026Estoril 1–2 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 1 November 2025Rio Ave 0–4 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 22 February 2025Estoril 2–1 Rio AvePrimeira Liga
  • 21 September 2024Rio Ave 2–2 EstorilPrimeira Liga
  • 31 January 2024Rio Ave 1–1 EstorilPrimeira Liga
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.